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Why am I still bullish when almost everyone in crypto is bearish? Not because everyone is bearish. Being contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian is lazy. I’m bullish because while crypto sentiment still feels terrible, some of the things I care about are quietly moving in the opposite direction. Start with equities. The Russell 2000 is up 22.3% this year and is outperforming the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow. The S&P 500 is at all-time highs. Small caps are working. That doesn’t look like a market where investors are afraid of risk. So when risk appetite is showing up almost everywhere except crypto, I see two possibilities: Crypto is structurally dead. Or crypto is simply late. I think the second one is more likely. Now look at the labor market. July payrolls came in at -23K. May and June were revised down by another 103K combined. Unemployment is still only 4.1%. So no, this doesn’t scream recession. But the labor market is clearly cooling. And that matters. At the last FOMC, three Fed members actually wanted to raise rates by 25bps. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, but another hike was a real risk. A softer labor market makes aggressive tightening harder. That’s the balance I want to see: Soft enough to take pressure off the Fed. Not weak enough to scream recession. Inflation is moving in the right direction too, even if the job isn’t finished. June headline PCE fell 0.1% month-over-month. Core PCE rose just 0.1%. Annual inflation is still too high, so I’m not pretending the problem is gone. But if that monthly trend continues, the macro narrative can change much faster than people expect. Then there’s crypto itself. ETH/BTC is approaching one of the most important levels on my chart: The 100-week moving average around 0.0313. It hasn’t been sustainably reclaimed since 2023. I’m not calling an altseason because we’re close to it. But reclaim that level on the weekly and hold it... and I think the conversation changes very quickly. Then there’s CLARITY. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn