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Retail sales just posted their worst drop since May 2025 down 0.6% MoM vs. +0.1% expected, the first decline in nine months. Core sales (ex-autos/gas) also fell 0.2%. Nonstore retailers led the drop at -2.2%, auto sales -1.8%. 90 minutes later, Michigan sentiment came in at 51.0 vs. 54.5 expected an ~8% drop from July, ending two months of improving sentiment. Here's the twist: the 10Y yield didn't fall on this data it kept climbing, now at 4.692% (+13% YTD). Why? That same Michigan survey showed 1-year inflation expectations ticking up from 4.2% to 4.3%, with households citing the Iran conflict and gas prices. Weak demand data usually pulls yields down. This time it didn't. BTC is telling the same story from the other side. Sitting at $62,842, down nearly 27% YTD, it's lost the $64K level that had been holding through the FOMC noise. Two charts, same message: yields climbing on sticky inflation expectations, $BTC unable to find footing while they do. That's the split soft demand pointing toward a Fed pause, but inflation expectations and a struggling risk-asset backdrop keeping the picture far from clean. 3 FOMC members already voted for a hike on July 29; this data doesn't obviously talk them out of it. Not the resilience story from a few weeks ago. Watching whether $60K holds if yields keep grinding higher. NFA.#WeakConsumptionFedSplit