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kingsley vin
🚨 INFLATION JUST GAVE THE FED MORE ROOM — BUT THE REAL TEST IS NEXT
The U.S. inflation picture has delivered another signal that markets are watching closely.
July CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI held at 2.5%. Then Thursday's PPI added another surprise: producer prices were FLAT in July versus expectations for a 0.2% rise.
PPI is now up 4.7% YoY, while core PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month.
Together with the recent weak jobs data, the latest numbers are reducing pressure for an immediate Fed hike. Markets have cut the probability of a September hike to roughly 35–40%, down sharply from around 55% a week earlier.
But this isn't a green light for unlimited risk-taking.
Some underlying service-price pressures remain, and the Fed still needs confirmation that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% objective.
That makes the next catalysts critical:
📌 Retail sales
📌 Jobs data
📌 Core PCE
📌 Treasury yields
📌 Jackson Hole
The setup is becoming clearer:
🔥 Softer inflation
📉 Lower hike expectations
💵 Potentially easier financial conditions
💧 Greater room for risk appetite
The biggest question now isn't whether CPI was bullish.
It's whether the CPI + PPI + labor-market combination is strong enough to permanently change Fed expectations.
If it is, liquidity could become the market's next major catalyst.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SP500Nears8000
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