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#美日确认联合购汇 Why is the US willing to personally intervene this time in the US-Japan joint intervention in the yen? In recent years, a large amount of capital has been borrowed in low-interest yen to buy US stocks, AI, BTC, and other dollar assets. This is the so-called yen carry trade. What the US truly worries about is that if the yen keeps depreciating, the carry trade will keep expanding; and if one day the yen suddenly appreciates sharply, the concentrated liquidation of positions will impact not only the forex market but the global financial market. Therefore, this time the US supports Japan in stabilizing the exchange rate while expanding the FIMA tool, hoping that Japan can buy yen without having to sell a large amount of US Treasuries to raise dollars, minimizing the impact on the US Treasury market. However, this is only about controlling the pace, not changing the trend. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and Japan’s rate hikes remain slow, the US-Japan interest rate differential persists, and capital will ultimately flow to the dollar. Exchange rate intervention can stabilize short-term sentiment but is unlikely to change the long-term direction. This move is more like buying the market a time window for an orderly exit rather than repeating the rapid carry trade liquidation seen in 2024. Going forward, the focus remains on US nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve policy, and the US-Japan interest rate differential. #30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead