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📉 Oil Is Falling… So Why Did Bitcoin Drop Too? At first glance, lower oil prices should be supportive for risk assets. But markets don't move on headlines alone—they move on expectations. The recent decline in $BTC is a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the news." Prediction markets have already been pricing in a high probability of a US–Iran ceasefire before the end of August. As optimism built, Bitcoin rallied back above $65K over the weekend. Then came Monday. Instead of extending higher, BTC fell from above $65.6K to below $64K, triggering liquidations across the market as traders took profits and sentiment cooled. The bigger shift is that the market's focus has changed. Last week, geopolitics and oil prices were driving price action. This week, attention has turned back to the Federal Reserve. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, interest rate expectations are once again taking center stage. Even with easing oil prices, markets remain cautious about the possibility of a more hawkish Fed. 🟢 Bullish factors • Lower oil prices may help reduce short-term inflation pressures. • US Treasury yields have eased from recent highs, offering some support for risk assets. 🔴 Bearish factors • Much of the ceasefire optimism was likely already priced in. • Geopolitical risks haven't disappeared, and negotiations remain uncertain. • Expectations around the Fed continue to create uncertainty for both stocks and crypto. For now, Bitcoin appears to be trading less on geopolitical headlines and more on macroeconomic expectations. The next major catalyst will likely come from the FOMC decision and guidance, which could determine whether the current pullback is simply profit-taking—or the start of a larger move. #CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH $AEON