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As soon as the night session opened, something felt off; every night, the US and Iran stir up trouble. BTC and ETH plunged sharply following news of the Strait's closure, while $CL steadily held above $82. Geopolitical risk is being repriced. The Hormuz agreement talks are as good as nonexistent. Both the US and Iran are escalating, but it's chips, not sincerity, that they're raising. The deadlock's core isn't the agreement itself but its implementation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman are still stuck in bickering, not even touching on basic terms like transit fees. Analysts say Iran's chips are depreciating, international tolerance for blocking the strait is decreasing, but the strait won't reopen anytime soon. The transmission chain is clear: geopolitical risk pushes oil prices up, oil prices raise inflation expectations, inflation expectations limit rate cut space, and risk assets naturally come under pressure. If tonight's CPI data continues to cool down, this logic chain can ease a bit, but if CPI rebounds, geopolitical and macro factors will create a double squeeze. For now, wait for tonight's data to settle; avoid making predictions before the direction becomes clear. No matter how lively the night session is, it can't compare to the weight of those numbers. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温