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Callistemon
The Day Before the Day
Today's the day CLARITY either gets its cloture filing or the pre-recess window quietly closes. Early signs are a bit more encouraging than earlier this week first hints the administration is aligning with the bipartisan ethics language that's been the real holdup, not the market-structure parts.
Then this morning threw a wrinkle in: ADP jobs data missed. That's awkward timing, because the whole story since Tuesday's FOMC was "Fed leaning hike, not cut." A soft ADP print doesn't kill that thesis, but it means tomorrow's actual NFP now carries more weight than it already did nobody's fully sure which way this breaks.
BTC's handling the noise fine so far. Sitting around $64.2-64.8K, still respecting the higher-low structure from the last few weeks. RSI's at 65 strong, not overheated. $67K is still the level bulls need to clear; $62.5-63K is the floor that's held a few times now. ETF flows keep helping too, $211M in yesterday, most of it BlackRock's IBIT.
What makes today interesting isn't really today. It's that two real, mostly unrelated catalysts are landing back to back CLARITY resolves today, NFP tomorrow and neither one is priced in yet. That's rare enough to actually pay attention to.#ADPCoolsFedSplit #HormuzDealNearsSigning

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