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Your summary captures the current macro narrative well. Here's a balanced analysis: Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens smoothly and geopolitical risks continue to ease, crude oil could remain under pressure, which strengthens expectations that central banks, including the Fed, may have more room to ease monetary policy. Risk assets such as technology stocks often benefit from this environment because lower interest rate expectations generally support higher valuations. Bitcoin's divergence is worth watching. If BTC falls during risk-off periods but doesn't rally during risk-on periods, it suggests crypto-specific factors (profit-taking, ETF flows, leverage, or weak spot demand) are offsetting the positive macro backdrop. However, it's important not to assume that: Lower oil prices automatically mean Fed rate cuts. The Fed also watches core inflation, employment, wages, and broader economic data. A bullish macro backdrop guarantees a Bitcoin rally. BTC has often lagged before making a decisive move, but it has also ignored favorable macro conditions at times. What to watch next Whether BTC can reclaim and hold key resistance levels on strong volume. Spot ETF inflows and institutional demand. Upcoming U.S. inflation and labor market data. Whether stocks continue to outperform while crypto catches up—or whether the divergence persists. At the moment, the macro environment appears more supportive for risk assets than it did a few weeks ago, but Bitcoin still needs its own confirmation through price action. Until then, patience and risk management remain sensible.