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17. My $SPCX thesis is simple: If earnings beat expectations and the unlock doesn't cause major selling, then the bullish side deserves much more attention. But I'm not ignoring the supply risk. 910M shares is a massive number, and even if only a portion sells, sentiment can change quickly. The selling may not happen immediately either. Day two or day three could be just as important as day one. That's how people get trapped—“I think it will be okay.” Above $120, many learned that lesson. I exited at 105 and still have a small 0.3 short at 114. Waiting patiently.