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$SPCX has already fallen more than 50% from its peak. Will the upcoming lock-up expiration send it even lower? Short term: probably more selling pressure. Long term: the lock-up isn't the real story. A big part of SPCX's rally came from a limited float and aggressive demand chasing a scarce asset. Once the lock-up expires, early investors and employees gain liquidity, increasing potential supply. But here's the key: markets usually price in known events before they happen. The recent decline has already absorbed part of that risk. What matters now is whether SpaceX can grow into its valuation. 🚀 If Starlink growth and commercialization exceed expectations, the lock-up may simply transfer shares from early holders to new investors. 📉 If earnings disappoint and valuation remains stretched, the lock-up could become the catalyst for another leg down. The lock-up expiration is a short-term event. Valuation is the long-term risk. Great companies can still be terrible investments if you overpay for them. Some people saying "put all your profits into SpaceX" are ignoring risk entirely. For me, SPCX is becoming interesting again. If the market overreacts after the unlock, I'll be looking to scale in. #SPCX #SpaceX #Starlink #EarningsSeason This version reads more confidently, flows better, and ends with a stronger investment takeaway.