Postaus

#CPIEasesHikeBets The July U.S. CPI report changed the rate-hike conversation but I don't think it completely removes the inflation problem. Released on August 12, 2026, July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core CPI also cooled to 2.5% YoY. That was enough to reduce the market's expectation for another Fed hike. Before the CPI release, traders were pricing a higher probability of a September hike. After the data, the probability of a 25-basis-point September hike fell to around 41.9%, from 46.1% immediately before the report. My take: This is good news for risk assets, but calling it a clean dovish signal would be premature. Inflation at 3.4% is still well above the Fed's 2% target. The important part is the direction: 3.5% → 3.4% headline CPI Core inflation → 2.5% Monthly CPI → only +0.1% That gives the Fed more room to wait instead of immediately tightening again. For Bitcoin, equities and other liquidity-sensitive assets, the bigger story isn't simply “CPI is lower.” It's that the probability of another aggressive Fed move is becoming less convincing. But the next inflation and labor-market reports matter even more. One cooler CPI print can change expectations. A sustained disinflation trend can change monetary policy. Those are very different things. #OKXTraderVoices #OKXOrbitTopics $BTC