Postaus

July CPI delivered relief without resolution. Headline inflation eased to 3.4% YoY and core to 2.5%, both matching forecasts, while energy fell 1.5% MoM. Yet shelter accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly rise keeps the underlying picture less comfortable. Combined with July payrolls falling by 23,000, the data weaken the case for another September hike. My read is that the Fed can justify a hold, but inflation remaining above 2% makes an early pivot harder to defend. PPI and the next jobs data should determine whether patience remains credible. NFA. #CPIInLineFedWatch