Postaus

8.9 billion in revenue can't stop a guidance that missed expectations $SNDK earnings are out. Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year. Gross margin 84.6%, adjusted EPS 39.25, all beating expectations. Also approved a $14 billion buyback. Then the stock price dropped from 1278 to 1191, down nearly 7%. A company that grew 372% got pushed back by the market after delivering its results. Why? Because of guidance. The next quarter's revenue guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, while the market wanted 11.1 billion. A 550 million shortfall caused a 7% drop in stock price. The market doesn't care how well you did in the past; it cares about how well you can do in the future. If you can't deliver what it wants, it sells. But I want to say something else. SanDisk has now signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. Over half of the shipments for fiscal 2027 are already locked in, and two-thirds for fiscal 2028. Data center revenue grew from 213 million a year ago to 2.977 billion, a 14-fold increase. A company that once lived by NAND cycles and quarterly pricing is now holding nearly $100 billion in long-term contracts. The cyclical nature is being peeled away bit by bit. But the market still values it as a cyclical stock — when you make money, it thinks you should be losing; when your guidance is a bit low, it thinks you’re failing. You’re earning from long-term contracts, but the market still wants to value you cyclically. That’s the disagreement. Goldman Sachs put it bluntly — "Market expectations have outpaced reality." It’s not that SanDisk isn’t doing well enough; it’s that the market had set expectations too high before. The stock price peaked at 2354 in June, dropped to 998 in July, rebounded to 1400, then got slammed again after earnings. The six-month candlestick chart looks like a roller coaster. On August 13, Investor Day, management will tell their story. About NAND supply and demand, AI storage roadmap. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn