Postaus

This Wednesday's CPI release is the crucial vote to decide whether to raise interest rates in September and also a key vote determining the direction of the crypto market. Because last week's unexpected weakness in non-farm payrolls has already provided arguments for the dovish side, now the last puzzle piece is inflation. If core CPI meets or falls below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will be cut in half; as long as it rebounds beyond expectations, combined with the hawkish base of three dissenting votes at the July meeting, a rate hike is basically a done deal. In the crypto market, if CPI is a bit lower, the Federal Reserve is more likely to hold steady, giving $BTC room to rebound; if CPI is higher, rate hike concerns return, and any rebound is likely to stall at key levels. Because Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $65,000. On the upside, it first needs to break through $66,300, then the significant resistance at the $70,000 mark; on the downside, there is buying support near $64,400, making a deeper drop unlikely. After the CPI data is released, the key focus is whether trading volume can help it hold above $65,000. If it holds steady, people will stop worrying about macro news, capital will flow back into crypto, and the market is likely to move upward; But if it spikes up and then falls back, I think short-term sideways movement will continue. So the entire market is hanging at a critical point, and no one dares to bet on a one-sided move in advance. Looking at the data, the latest CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% chance of holding rates steady in September and a 44.4% chance of a 25bp hike—before last week's non-farm payroll release, the hike probability was still above 55%. A weak jobs report directly pulled expectations back, and now it’s a balanced game; one CPI report can completely break the equilibrium. Regarding the Fed’s #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn