Postaus

#30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high ⚠️ Personal opinion exchange, not investment advice There is really a lot of market divergence now. Seeing the PCE month-on-month decline, many people rushed in to bottom-fish, thinking inflation is completely over. But on the other hand, the 30-year US Treasury yield reached 5.27%, a new high since 2007. My understanding is simple: don’t conclude a market reversal based on single-month data. PCE is lagging data that has already landed; the real pricing of future risk is the long-end US Treasury yield. Three people inside the FOMC lean towards rate hikes, domestic demand warming combined with a 20% surge in oil prices, inflation risks remain. Long bonds stay high, making it hard for the crypto market to easily run a big bull in August. From my trading experience, I summarize two points: Don’t bet on long-term trends using past inflation data; short-term arbitrage and trend trading must be separated, short-term longs don’t mean I’m bullish on a big bull market. 📍 About my position: $BTC entered at 62654 with 23x ultra-short-term long, purely speculating on a rebound repair. Take profit at 63800-64200, stop loss at 62350, this trade is absolutely not a big-picture play. The big picture hasn’t changed, the overall idea is still to short on rebounds. Once the rebound weakens and US Treasuries strengthen again, after taking profits, directly reverse to short. Currently holding a light position for the mid-to-long term to watch. I will only heavily position when long bond yields truly turn and inflation continuously declines. Without an interest rate cycle reversal, no bull market can be talked about. #30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay