Posteo

#FedRateDecision This is it. FOMC decision tonight, Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair 🎯 CME FedWatch: 69.5% hold, 30.5% hike. But Bank of America just pointed out the Fed hasn't hiked with market odds below 60% since 1994 — if it happens tonight, it's literally unprecedented 👀 TD Securities' base case: hold, but with Hammack and Logan dissenting in favor of a hike. That scenario is "hold in headline, hawkish in subtext" — and markets will have to decide which part to trade 🤔 Data pulling in both directions: consumer confidence fell to 90.8 → dovish. Oil rebounded on latest strikes → hawkish. No clean read 🫠 The bigger issue: Warsh already scrapped forward guidance. The old framework for reading Fed statements is gone. Tonight's wording is the new anchor — every word gets parsed from scratch 📊 Hold or historic hike. And the press conference matters more than the decision itself. How are you positioned going in — and are you watching the statement or waiting for Warsh's first words at the mic? 👇