TraderS | 缺德道人
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The storage sector now basically has very little volatility, but trading volume still ranks among the top. It feels like Hynix's trend is somewhat similar to SpaceX's before, where after extreme deleveraging ended, both bulls and bears exited, entering a high turnover + low amplitude accumulation phase.
Although the narrative bubble has burst, the fundamentals of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron are indeed solid, especially compared to SpaceX, which has a real profit anchor.
Against the backdrop of AI's rapid development, even if we can't say storage will always be in shortage, demand remains strong, especially for HBM and server DRAM, which are indeed in tight supply. NAND supply might be the first to start improving in the future. So the growth ceiling for the three major memory makers should actually be higher than SanDisk's.
Currently, Hynix's common stock at 1,420,000 KRW/1000 USD seems to have a decent cost-performance ratio, so I opened a long position again to hold some, while ADRs have a premium, and I don't know when they might suddenly be leveled out. Psychologically, shorting ADRs feels more secure than going long, so I first go long on the common stock.
Generally, extreme market conditions last about two weeks, so now positioning for recovery has a much higher success rate than betting on further declines. $SKHYNIX $SNDK
Back to the SPCX chart, only a hold above 140 makes 145 easy to reach; a volume breakout above 145 is needed to talk about 150. Conversely, if CPI causes a drop below 135 again, the short squeeze that started from 105 will shift from a one-way push to high-level oscillation or even a phase of profit-taking. $SPCX $RKLB
TraderS | 缺德道人
SpaceX's short squeeze rally this week has been quite steady, without even a single step back, allowing the bulls who have been suppressed for two months to finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Yesterday's close rose 4.23% to 138.74, maintaining stability. Besides its own factors, the market speculates that RKLB's earnings report and the failure of the Zhongxing 4B launch also impacted SPCX's stock price, but the main driver is still its own independent logic.
For commercial aerospace, the launch itself is just infrastructure, while the functions provided by the satellites are the real business. The entire industry is now turning into mini SpaceX's; the battle of business models is over, and what remains is the battle of scale.
The failure of the Long March 7 modification will raise SpaceX's reliability premium and will put the brakes on China's narrative of weakening SpaceX's technological scarcity. It may add fuel to the current short squeeze, but it is not decisive. If the final fault investigation confirms that the problem lies with the shared core of the entire new generation Long March family—the YF-100 engine—then it will very likely postpone the bearish catalyst hanging over SPCX in Q4.
Tomorrow night's CPI data probably won't be lower than last month, since oil prices have been rebounding since early July. But it won't be very high either, because oil price transmission has a lag, and the main impact of the oil price rebound will show in next month's data. Judging from today's gold price trend, the current pullback looks more like profit-taking after a rally and waiting for the CPI, rather than proving the market has completely ruled out rate hike risks. Therefore, the US stock market should not be bullish before the CPI data is released. $SPCX
SpaceX's short squeeze rally this week has been quite steady, without even a single step back, allowing the bulls who have been suppressed for two months to finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Yesterday's close rose 4.23% to 138.74, maintaining stability. Besides its own factors, the market speculates that RKLB's earnings report and the failure of the Zhongxing 4B launch also impacted SPCX's stock price, but the main driver is still its own independent logic.
For commercial aerospace, the launch itself is just infrastructure, while the functions provided by the satellites are the real business. The entire industry is now turning into mini SpaceX's; the battle of business models is over, and what remains is the battle of scale.
The failure of the Long March 7 modification will raise SpaceX's reliability premium and will put the brakes on China's narrative of weakening SpaceX's technological scarcity. It may add fuel to the current short squeeze, but it is not decisive. If the final fault investigation confirms that the problem lies with the shared core of the entire new generation Long March family—the YF-100 engine—then it will very likely postpone the bearish catalyst hanging over SPCX in Q4.
Tomorrow night's CPI data probably won't be lower than last month, since oil prices have been rebounding since early July. But it won't be very high either, because oil price transmission has a lag, and the main impact of the oil price rebound will show in next month's data. Judging from today's gold price trend, the current pullback looks more like profit-taking after a rally and waiting for the CPI, rather than proving the market has completely ruled out rate hike risks. Therefore, the US stock market should not be bullish before the CPI data is released. $SPCX
Checked the previous holdings early this morning, and gold has been surprisingly strong, so let's talk about it first.
This round of gold's rally started with the drop in oil prices, but the simultaneous rise while oil prices were also rebounding was largely due to the weak non-farm payroll data. After all, profit and loss share the same source; in early June, gold dropped from the 4400 level because of rising rate hike expectations, and now it is actually clearing out the rate hike premium.
At the same time, weak employment + high oil prices = full stagflation expectations, which is the perfect external environment for gold.
So the window that will decide whether gold continues to rise or pulls back is tomorrow night's CPI data. If it strengthens rate hike expectations, gold will fall; if it weakens rate hike expectations, gold will rise.
From the chart alone, the previous resistance at 4370 has been broken, and the next resistance is around 4460-4520. Pulling up to this range means a full 10% increase, which is already quite significant for such a large asset.
Therefore, if CPI cooperates, gold will oscillate and digest around 4460-4520; if CPI does not cooperate, it will probably spike and pull back here $XAUT
SpaceX $SPCX has recently shown a typical short squeeze pattern. After all, before the unlock on August 6th, the bearish sentiment was very strong, and the stock price had been steadily declining for a month, accumulating a huge short interest. It's like a powder keg just waiting for a match to ignite it.
Recent continuous positive developments:
1. The Terafab chip factory, which looks very well-designed and futuristic
2. Argus upgraded to Buy on Thursday with a target price of 160 (not guaranteed to reach)
3. The Cursor 60 billion transaction is reportedly set to settle this week
4. Cathie Wood increased her position by $13.2 million
All these factors are heating things up step by step.
Since there will be another batch of unlocks on August 20th, it’s actually hard to be bullish, although this unlock scale is smaller than on August 6th, so the panic level might be significantly lower. But I think the limit is around 145 for this wave, because I’m personally stuck around 160. So I plan to open the same amount of short positions to lock in the floating loss near 140, then after a pullback and stabilization, close the shorts and wait for the next rebound to break even.
However, this is just an ideal plan. Who knows if this asset will continue to surge and cause a crazy short squeeze? We have to take it step by step.
Also, note that $RKLB will release its earnings after the market closes on Monday, August 10th. This will be a good opportunity to verify whether the space sector is driven by fundamentals or just rotation. SPCX is likely to move in tandem.
Blind guess this $SPCX will pull up to around 140, besides having a resistance level there, 105*1.33=140, using triple leverage is a basic move during a rebound
TraderS | 缺德道人
SpaceX performed quite well today, almost reaching 135 after hours. The short squeeze initially expected on the 8.5th was delayed by two days but still happened, which might have a more surprising effect. After all, money isn't that easy to make in this world, and shorts can't be allowed to run rampant forever. Even if Musk doesn't take action, there will be funds watching the shorts as a big opportunity to capitalize on. Moreover, he is indeed intentionally or unintentionally coordinating announcements rhythmically; whether his factory can finally stabilize chip mass production isn't that important. It's more important to let retail investors know the project team is actively working. $SPCX
SpaceX performed quite well today, almost reaching 135 after hours. The short squeeze initially expected on the 8.5th was delayed by two days but still happened, which might have a more surprising effect. After all, money isn't that easy to make in this world, and shorts can't be allowed to run rampant forever. Even if Musk doesn't take action, there will be funds watching the shorts as a big opportunity to capitalize on. Moreover, he is indeed intentionally or unintentionally coordinating announcements rhythmically; whether his factory can finally stabilize chip mass production isn't that important. It's more important to let retail investors know the project team is actively working. $SPCX
I was too tired when I just posted this, copied the numbers wrong and corrected them twice, and even forgot to mention the short position on SanDisk.
Anyway, the logic for shorting gold is that this is a short-term operation; it just pulled up, and the resistance at 4370 above is not easy to break. It has to pull back to 4230 at least. It's just speculation. I used to trade gold often, didn't play this wave, so I'm making up for it. But after it goes down, I'm still prepared to come back more. Since it has started this time, it should gradually start moving towards 4800.
In short, if the three major storage stocks fall again, it will be a good opportunity to go long. It's a range-bound oscillation; it can't fall, short positions rise, long positions. I explained the specific logic yesterday as well.
TraderS | 缺德道人
July unemployment rate 4.1%, non-farm payrolls -23,000, guessed it would be bad, but not this bad, and the combined non-farm payroll additions for May and June were revised down by 103,000.
As expected, gold surged to the 4350 resistance level, already opened a short position.
The previously long Hynix position has been closed out.
July unemployment rate 4.1%, non-farm payrolls -23,000, guessed it would be bad, but not this bad, and the combined non-farm payroll additions for May and June were revised down by 103,000.
As expected, gold surged to the 4350 resistance level, already opened a short position.
The previously long Hynix position has been closed out.