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#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX SpaceX rises after unlocking: unlocking does not equal bad news Many people see "911.5 million shares unlocked" and automatically translate it as "911.5 million shares dumped." This step is already wrong. On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares simply changed from "cannot be sold" to "can be sold," it is not a new issuance and will not dilute the total share capital. SpaceX currently has about 13.182 billion shares outstanding, and this unlocked batch accounts for only 6.9%. Even if all enter circulation, the theoretical float would only increase from 638.9 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, about 11.8% of total shares. What really needs to be looked at is who can sell, at what cost, and whether the market can absorb it. SpaceX has not disclosed the uniform average cost of this unlocked batch, but public data can provide some reference: As of the end of March, the company still had 133.8 million Class A options with an average exercise price of $27.65; and 358.2 million Class B options with an average exercise price of only $8.22. The most recent internal transaction price in December 2025 was $421, which, adjusted for this year's 5-for-1 split, is equivalent to $84.2 per share. Compared to the current price of $133.11, many employees and early investors indeed still have significant unrealized gains. Reducing holdings, paying taxes, improving living standards, and diversifying risks are all normal, so potential selling pressure is not fake. But "having profits" does not mean "selling all on the same day." The employee resale filing submitted on August 4 covers about 136.95 million shares, about 15% of the nominal first batch unlocking scale, and registration to sell still does not mean the shares have been sold. Why did the price rise after unlocking? First, unlocking panic had already been priced in advance. Before unlocking, SpaceX's stock price had retraced nearly half from the June high; concerns about unlocking, overvaluation, and huge capital expenditures had already been repeatedly priced in. Second, market absorption was better than expected. On the unlocking day, August 6, the price rose 6.1%, and the next day rose another 15.9%, closing at $133.11, with a single-day volume reaching 242 million shares. Price rising on high volume rather than falling better indicates whether selling pressure is out of control than the "nominal number of shares unlocked." Third, short positions were too crowded. As of July 29, about 219.3 million shares of SpaceX were shorted, equivalent to 34% of the original float. The expected massive dumping did not occur, and short covering naturally amplified the rebound. However, the recent rise cannot be entirely explained as "unlocking bad news fully priced in." SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.538 billion; rating upgrades and the overall tech stock rebound also provided additional catalysts. Meanwhile, the company's Q2 capital expenditure was as high as $18.369 billion, of which AI business accounted for $15.828 billion. This is the real long-term valuation issue to digest. So my judgment is: The first batch unlocking did not turn into the market-expected concentrated sell-off, indicating current absorption is stronger than expected, but supply pressure has not completely ended. About 319 million shares will be released on August 20, with further batches unlocking in September and October. By December 8, theoretically, tradable shares may rise to 40% of total shares. The key next is to see if the $135 issue price can hold with volume. If subsequent unlocking continues to increase and the stock price can still hold $135, it means low-cost chips are truly being absorbed by the market. Unlocking just opens the door. The real bad news is if low-cost chips really run out and the market cannot absorb them.