Post

Don't wait for CLARITY: The SEC's "knife" is more reliable than Congress's "stalling tactics" On August 7, the Senate officially adjourned. No vote on the CLARITY bill. Senate Majority Leader Schumer confirmed late Thursday night: the bill will not be voted on before the recess, and the related agenda is postponed to September. Schumer's exact words were: "The Democrats insist on no CLARITY vote." After the Senate reconvenes on September 14, the bill will be "listed as the top priority" for advancement. But do you know what this means? From the September reconvening to the midterm elections in November, there are less than three weeks of legislative time left. Three weeks to finalize a bill that has been stuck for a year? Don't be naive. The "federal regulatory framework" you are waiting for most likely won't come—at least not this year. Look at the data: On Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY bill being signed into law in 2026 has plummeted from over 70% in early May to about 14%. A week ago it was still 30%, now only 13%-16%. From "a done deal" to "basically no chance" in just three months. Republican Senator Tillis himself said: the vote delay to September "may have reduced the bill's chances of passing by 50%." 50%? I think it's even less. So where is the bill stuck? On the surface, it's bipartisan bickering, but in reality, three powder kegs exploded simultaneously. First, the ethics clause—Trump's crypto business became a target. Democrats demand stricter restrictions on government officials' crypto asset conflicts of interest. The focus is on the Trump family—their meme coins, World Liberty Financial, and other crypto projects have become unavoidable topics at the negotiation table. Second, consumer protection and anti-fraud provisions. Seven Democratic senators previously rejected earlier draft versions, citing insufficient strength in consumer protection, anti-money laundering, and market integrity. Democrats demand tougher anti-fraud clauses and market manipulation safeguards. Third, the battle of interests between stablecoins and the banking industry. Some lawmakers worry existing provisions might impact small banks' business space. Banking groups demand stricter limits on interest payments related to stablecoins. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon even publicly criticized Coinbase's CEO. It's been a year, and none of the three sides are yielding. Now the question is: without CLARITY, what will the crypto industry do? The answer might surprise you— The crypto industry has survived without a federal shield before. Three alternative paths are taking shape: Path one: SEC and CFTC's "Project Crypto." Bernstein research points out: even if the CLARITY bill fails, the SEC and CFTC can continue advancing crypto regulation through "Project Crypto." The two agencies have already established a coordination framework, including joint interpretations of how securities laws apply to crypto assets, and ongoing rulemaking for token issuance, broker custody, and trading venues. The plan pushed by SEC Chair Gensler is included in the 2026 agenda, covering token registration exemptions, safe harbors, and broker custody. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam bluntly said: if Congress doesn't act, regulators will ultimately set industry rules. In plain language: if you don't legislate, we'll do it ourselves. Path two: fragmented regulation by individual states. California's Digital Financial Assets Law took effect on July 1. Exchanges, custodians, stablecoin issuers, and Bitcoin ATM operators serving California residents must now hold a DFPI license or have submitted a complete application. Violators face civil penalties up to $100,000 per day. That's just California. What about New York? Texas? Path three: enforcement regulation. The SEC and CFTC have never stopped enforcement actions. Without CLARITY, they continue investigations, fines, and prosecutions. Where rules are unclear, boundaries become clearer. What does this mean for the market? First, a "big unified" federal framework is unlikely in the short term. After the September reconvening, only a three-week window remains, plus political pressure from the midterms. Even if the Senate passes it, it must return to the House for final vote, then to the President for signature. There simply isn't enough time. Second, fragmented state regulations will become the norm. California's DFAL has set the precedent. 50 states, 50 sets of rules. Crypto companies doing business nationwide will face rising compliance costs. Third, for exchanges and DeFi projects, compliance costs won't decrease, only increase. Federal legislation isn't coming, but regulation won't be absent—it will just arrive in a more fragmented and unpredictable way. Stop pinning your hopes on "handouts" from Washington. CLARITY is stalled, but regulation is not absent. The SEC's rulemaking is ongoing, state licensing regimes are in effect, and enforcement actions have never stopped. A "big unified" federal framework is a luxury, not a necessity. The crypto industry lived well before CLARITY and will live well after CLARITY. Only—the way of living has changed. Those waiting for "regulatory clarity" to enter the market may have to wait a very long time. And those already running on the compliance path— Have long left their competitors behind. $BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移