Revenue surged 372%, then plunged 8% after hours — Wall Street finally says “enough” to AI storage
Looking at SanDisk's earnings report — revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, beating market expectations by a full 4.3%. Adjusted EPS of $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year. Gross margin at 84.6%, 3 percentage points higher than expected.
The company also announced a $14 billion buyback plan, with total remaining buyback authorization reaching $15.5 billion.
Waking up, SanDisk plunged 8% after hours, having already dropped 5.4% during regular trading — losing the value of a mid-sized tech company in one day.
Everyone was stunned.
On August 5, the pricing logic for AI storage completely changed overnight.
Previously, the market looked at what? Revenue, profit, gross margin. SanDisk's data center business surged 1298%, edge computing up 392% — all positive.
But now, Wall Street's gaze has shifted.
They are focused on one thing: next quarter's guidance.
SanDisk expects next quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion — 5.5% below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion.
EPS guidance is $44 to $46, market expectation $45.58. Gross margin guidance 83% to 85%, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter — showing signs of peaking.
"Strong results backfire" — the stronger you were in the past, the higher the market's expectations for your future.
This is Wall Street's new script as of August 5, 2026.
To be blunt: the market no longer pays for the "past," it only buys the "future."
SanDisk's full fiscal year 2026 revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $11.43 billion, compared to a loss of $1.64 billion last year.
From losing money to earning $11.4 billion in just one year.
Impressive, right?
Not enough.
Goldman Sachs bluntly said: "Market expectations already imply the assumption of 'perfect execution + continuous outperformance,' any guidance returning to normal will be interpreted as a negative signal."
What does that mean?
You scored 99 points, but the market expects 100 — so you fail.
Even harsher, SanDisk is not an isolated case.
Western Digital reported earnings the same day and plunged over 11% after hours. The two storage giants lost hundreds of billions in market value in one day.
Roundhill Financial's CEO put it more plainly:
"The storage industry's fundamentals are at their best in the past decade, but the market has already priced this in. If earnings and guidance don't significantly exceed expectations, it may be hard to satisfy the market."
In plain terms: you’re driving at 200 mph, now even flooring the gas can only maintain 200 mph — but the passengers in the back are shouting for 250 mph.
But there’s a detail many overlook.
SanDisk holds 8 NBM long-term agreements guaranteeing $93.9 billion in minimum revenue. Over half of 2027 fiscal year capacity and two-thirds of 2028 fiscal year capacity are already locked in.
This is the first time in the NAND industry that a company can see demand visibility over four years ahead.
Moreover — Elon Musk personally reassured: AI storage demand growth is ten times supply.
So the issue isn’t "whether AI storage has demand."
The issue is: the market has already priced the "demand exists" fact into the stratosphere.
Stop comforting yourself with "earnings beat expectations."
This earnings season, the market only recognizes one thing: can you continue to beat expectations next quarter?
SanDisk has already dropped 47% in July, wiping out over $150 billion in market value. Last night it dropped another 8%.
Those who rushed in seeing "372% surge" have probably finished crying by now.
But one thing is certain —
The AI storage sector has moved from the stage of "who benefits"
to "who can sustain benefits."
The former looks at the past, the latter looks to the future.
And Wall Street only ever trades the future.
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