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Kshsb
Kshsb
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现在市场不是在加速进攻,而是在高位继续磨。 先看结构:$BTC 市占率 58.81%,ETH 只有 10.30%,山寨季节指数 42,说明资金还是明显偏向 $BTC ,市场并没有进入真正的山寨扩散阶段。 再看合约:未平仓合约总量 3876.7 亿美元,24 小时内几乎横着走,期货未平仓合约只有 19.8 亿美元,这说明杠杆没有明显扩张,市场情绪还在,但资金并没有疯狂加仓。 所以我现在的判断很简单: 情绪可以偏多,但仓位并不激进。 这更像是一个“等方向”的阶段,不是那种一眼就能冲出趋势的盘面。 如果后面 $BTC 继续稳住,合约未平仓开始放大,山寨季节指数也往上走,那才说明市场真的开始从 BTC 主导,慢慢往风险偏好扩散。现在还没有到那一步。
Kshsb
Kshsb
Today, the $BTC ETF continued to see a net inflow of $210.77 million, with IBIT inflows of $170.3 million, and FBTC and ARKB also seeing slight increases in holdings. I’m now looking at this kind of data more directly: not focusing on how much it rises in a day, but whether institutions are consistently treating BTC as an allocation asset. Because once ETF funds start flowing in steadily, the logic for $BTC will gradually change. It will no longer be just a highly volatile asset, but increasingly like a long-term position formally accepted by the traditional financial system. So my current judgment on $BTC remains the same: Short-term prices will fluctuate, but once institutional funds form a habit, the trend won’t be easily interrupted

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