A stock that fell from 225 to 108, why does Morgan Stanley dare to set a target price of 300?
SpaceX, the largest IPO in human history, with a market value once close to $3 trillion on its first day of listing.
And then? A continuous plunge. The 52-week high was $225.64, now only $115—nearly halved.
The earnings report came out, revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion.
And then? It continued to drop 6.5% after hours.
An earnings report that exceeded expectations resulted in an even more unexpected sell-off.
Sounds familiar? The script of good news being fully priced in played out in the chip sector and has now moved to space.
So the question is—why does Morgan Stanley, this "old fox," still dare to give a $300 target price?
It's not because they are foolish.
It's because the valuation logic is completely different.
Morgan Stanley used a method called SOTP—Sum of the Parts valuation.
Simply put, the company is split into four parts, each valued separately, then summed up.
The breakdown results are shocking:
Space business (rocket launches): $8 per share
The company that sends humans to Mars and is one of only two in the world capable of rocket recovery—Morgan Stanley thinks it's only worth $8.
Network and Starlink: $128 per share
A satellite internet empire with 12 million users and annual revenue exceeding $10 billion—worth $128.
X platform and Grok AI: $12 per share
The social platform Musk bought for $44 billion, plus the self-developed large model—packaged at $12.
Enterprise AI business: $152 per share
—accounting for more than half of the total valuation.
Got it?
Morgan Stanley thinks this company is worth $300. Among that, rockets are worth $8, AI is worth $152.
And what is the current stock price? $115.
Not even enough to cover Starlink alone.
In other words, the market currently prices Starlink as free, rockets as free, and AI as a negative asset.
Deutsche Bank puts it more bluntly: based on the current market value, the market values SpaceX's AI business at nearly zero.
A company with quarterly AI business revenue of $2.561 billion, a 247% year-over-year increase, and just signed cloud computing contracts worth tens of billions of dollars monthly with Anthropic and Google—
the market says: this thing is worthless.
Do you think that's reasonable?
But the market has its own logic.
On August 6, SpaceX will face its first large-scale lock-up expiration.
911.5 million internal shares will gain the right to trade freely. Currently, only about 5% of shares are tradable; after expiration, it will double directly to 12%.
At the current stock price, this is worth over $100 billion.
Meanwhile, shorts have already bet $24.6 billion, with unrealized gains of $7.3 billion and are still adding positions.
27 institutions unanimously say "buy," with an average target price of $236. Shorts are increasing positions while floating profits.
Both sides are proving themselves right with real money.
I've rarely seen such a degree of long-short split in my career.
So what can we learn?
AI valuation is undergoing a shift from "concept" to "cash flow."
SpaceX's AI business has already signed cloud service contracts worth tens of billions annually. Grok 4.6 will be released next week, and SpaceX's more than 20 years of engineering data are all fed into model training.
AI is not a story.
It is a reality happening now.
And the market currently prices this reality at—zero.
Either the market is right, and AI is worthless.
Or the market is wrong, and someone is selling gold at ankle prices.
SpaceX's earnings report is not just a report; it's a capital verification.
The August 6 lock-up expiration is not just an expiration; it's a truth-revealing mirror.
Shorts are betting early investors will panic sell. Bulls are betting the market will finally see the true value of AI.
I'm watching the show and doing the math.
$BTC$ETH $XSPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
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