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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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1000亿解禁正在抽血加密市场:SpaceX财报的真正受害者可能是BTC 有一家公司,IPO冲到3万亿美元市值,六周后腰斩到1.4万亿。 8月6日,1000亿美元的股票要解禁。 而接盘的钱从哪里来? 先看昨晚发生了什么。 8月4日盘后,SpaceX交出上市后首份财报—— 营收78.14亿美元,同比增长92%,远超市场预期的69亿美元。 运营亏损从9.7亿收窄到1.43亿。 调整后EBITDA同比增长191%,达到35亿美元。 大超预期。所有数字都在说:这家公司很能打。 然后呢? 财报发布后,SpaceX盘后股价跌了近7%。 营收暴涨92%,股价反而跌了。 为什么? 因为市场盯的不是营收,是钱去哪了。 二季度资本开支183.7亿美元,远超预期的132亿。其中158亿砸向了AI基础设施。 营收翻倍,烧钱翻六倍。 这还不是最可怕的。 真正的炸弹在8月6日。 财报发布后不到48小时——9.115亿股内部限售股解禁。 按当前股价,价值超过1000亿美元。 而SpaceX目前可自由交易的公众流通股只有多少? 约6.4亿股。 一夜之间,可交易股份从6.4亿股翻倍到超过15亿股。 这不是解禁,这是泄洪。 而这还只是第一批。到12月,流通盘将飙升至53.3亿股——增长超过七倍。 一千亿美元的抛压,谁来接? 空头已经提前站好了位置。 S3 Partners数据显示,截至7月29日,SpaceX空头仓位达2.193亿股,占流通股的34%,名义价值246亿美元。 比特斯拉的空头规模还大。 6月16日首次披露时,空头只有2330万股。一个多月,暴增近十倍。 而且这帮人已经浮盈73亿美元,还在逆势加仓。 27家机构一致喊“买入”,目标价隐含超110%上行空间。 一边是分析师集体看多,一边是空头疯狂加码。 两边都在用真金白银证明自己没错。那你信谁? 现在说重点——这件事跟你的比特币仓位有什么关系? 关系大了。 流动性传导链只有两条路: 情景一:财报不及预期 → 解禁盘没人接 → 股价崩 → 机构被迫卖其他资产补保证金。 情景二:财报超预期(昨晚已经发生了) → 机构看好想接盘 → 卖BTC/ETH ETF换现金。 不管财报好坏,加密市场可能都是那个被抽血的对象。 6月SpaceX IPO期间,比特币从7.3万美元以上跌到了6.2万美元。市场管那叫“IPO吸走加密流动性”。 现在同样的剧本,放大了10倍。 那时IPO募资750亿美元。如今是1000亿美元的增量解锁供应,再加上数十亿股会持续解禁到12月。 这不是一次性的流动性事件——这是一个持续到冬天的“卖方黑洞”。 两个关键时间节点: 8月4日盘后——财报(已出,超预期,决定了值不值得接) 8月6日——解禁(实际抛压落地) 这两天是加密市场最难受的流动性真空期。 别问BTC为什么在65k附近上不去。 问就是钱被抽走了。 做好波动准备,别在该观望的时候All in。 1000亿美元的股票要解锁,接盘的钱从哪里来? 答案很残酷:从你的仓位里来。 这不是看空比特币。这是看懂了钱在往哪流。 当流动性被抽干的时候,没有任何资产能扛住被动砸盘。 $BTC $ETH $SPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期,解禁仍是关键变量
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Losing $57 million while aggressively buying BTC—what exactly is the Trump family playing at? Brothers, a news piece yesterday really confused me. American Bitcoin (ABTC), the mining company under the Trump family, reported a Q2 net loss of $57.2 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of losses. But the same financial report shows—Bitcoin reserves increased from 7,021 to 8,002 coins, a 14% growth in a single quarter. Losing money but still buying hard? Even more surreal—on the same day, Trump Media (TMTG) transferred $165 million worth of Bitcoin to Crypto.com. Although they later clarified "no sale, just a custodian change," on-chain data shows—2,628 BTC were transferred out, leaving only 4,261 BTC, just enough to cover convertible bond collateral. Same family, two companies, same day, one is buying, the other is leveraging. Who do you trust? Let's first break down American Bitcoin's numbers. Where did the $57.2 million loss come from? $71.2 million is the "fair value impairment" of Bitcoin holdings—not actual cash lost, but an accounting mark-to-market loss. What about the mining core business? Q2 revenue was $67 million, mining 932 BTC, a single-quarter record. Mining cost per coin is about $36,500, while BTC's current price is $63,000—gross margin close to 50%. CEO Mike Ho said: "Bitcoin is a growing capital asset, and we believe its long-term compounding will outperform our cost of capital." In plain language: the loss is on paper, the profit is real BTC. Paper losses are bearable, BTC cannot stop. Now look at Trump Media. $165 million BTC transferred to Crypto.com. No sale? Fine, I believe you. But after transferring out 2,628 BTC, the remaining 4,261 BTC exactly equals the convertible bond collateral. What does this mean? Those BTC were previously "free holdings," now they are "pledged assets." Pledging carries liquidation risk—if BTC falls to a certain price, creditors can liquidate. One buys more as price falls, the other pledges more. Same father, two different strategies. Back to your main concern: does this affect my short-term BTC price outlook? Today (August 4) in Asian morning trading, BTC briefly approached $64,100, up about 2% from the previous day, reclaiming the $63,000 level lost on Monday. But don't get too excited. BTC's current price is about $63,150, down roughly 45% from a year ago. ABTC's stock price? Down about 95% from its peak, forced a 1-for-15 reverse stock split in July just to stay on Nasdaq. Eric Trump personally holds 6% of shares, with market value shrunk by over $600 million. A company with a $57 million paper loss, a founder personally losing $600 million—and still buying. Is this faith or foolishness? My judgment is simple: In the short term, these two news items have limited direct impact on BTC price. The market focuses more on macro and liquidity, not a mining company's earnings. But in the medium to long term, ABTC's choice sends a clear signal: At a mining cost of $36,500, BTC at $63,000 is "cheap." Eric Trump himself said: "Our advantage is that we don't buy at market price; our mining cost is about half the market price." Translation: others buying BTC at $63,000 is speculation; I mine it at $36,500, that's profit. The Trump family's two companies made opposite moves on the same day— ABTC is hoarding, TMTG is pledging. One tells you "BTC is bullish long-term," the other says "I’m pledging BTC first." Who do you believe? I believe the data. ABTC's mining cost is $36,500, gross margin 50%—as long as BTC doesn't fall below $40,000, this company can survive and grow. TMTG pledging BTC means they need cash and are borrowing. One is the producer's logic, the other the consumer's logic. Are you a producer or a consumer? $BTC $ETH $SOL #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC

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