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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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7月29日,美联储连续第五次维持利率不变,3.50%-3.75%。 但12个投票委员里,3个人投了反对票——洛根、哈马克、卡什卡利,全都要求立刻加息25个基点。 这是2016年以来,美联储第一次在同一次会议里出现三张方向一致的反对票。 消息出来,标普500跌1.5%,纳指跌1.7%,道指跌2.19%。 比特币瞬间跌了约1%,最低到63,890美元。 朋友圈刷屏了——“鹰派来了”“9月必加息”“赶紧跑”。 但我加仓了。 为什么?因为99%的人只看到了3张反对票,没看到沃什发布会里的3个细节。 细节一:沃什在发布会上释放了明确的鸽派信号。 他淡化AI带来的通胀压力,说AI相关产品涨价是局部现象,不是整体通胀全面抬头。 他把近期市场利率上升归因于经济强劲。 最关键的一句——市场利率的上行,本身已经在替代加息。金融市场已经替美联储完成了部分紧缩工作。 什么意思?沃什在说:“债市已经帮我加息了,我不一定非要动基准利率。” 这不是鸽派是什么? 细节二:9月加息概率,不升反降。 会前,市场定价9月加息概率超过80%。 发布会后,直接降到接近60%。 到8月4日,CME数据显示9月加息概率约67%,但边际变化的方向是下降的。 市场的第一反应永远是情绪。第二反应才是方向。 方向是鸽派。 你是在第一反应里恐慌割肉,还是在第二反应里看到了机会? 细节三:美元指数暴跌。 7月28日到30日,美元指数连续三天下跌,累计跌超1.5%,失守100点关口。 美元跌,风险资产的压力就在释放。 比特币能守在63,000美元上方,说明潜在需求依然坚实。 3张反对票吓跑了散户。美元暴跌告诉了聪明钱:压力在释放。 我的操作很简单: 不追高。在每一次宏观数据引发的恐慌性下跌中分批挂单。 63,000美元以下,每跌1,000美元挂一笔。 别人恐慌时,我在看细节。 接下来盯什么? 8月27日到29日,杰克逊霍尔年会。沃什会在8月28日发表主旨演讲。 摩根士丹利说得很直白:如果7月和8月CPI连续超预期,沃什可能在9月转向更激进加息——这是当前最大的利率风险。 止损必须挂好。宏观交易员的超额收益,来自别人恐慌时你看到了细节。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #从降息到加息,联储分歧全公开
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
8.2 billion loss, stock price down 70%, selling coins at a loss—has Strategy's “Bitcoin faith” collapsed? A company that calls itself a “Bitcoin super bull” — sold at a loss when the coin price was over 60,000. A net loss of 8.2 billion USD in Q2. Stock price down 70% in one year. Tell me, is this success or failure? Let's look at the facts first, don't rush to take sides. On August 3, Strategy filed documents with the SEC — from July 27 to August 2, sold 1,638 bitcoins, cashing out 104.7 million USD. Average selling price 63,957 USD. Holding cost 75,419 USD. Loss of 11,462 USD per coin. Where did the money from the sale go? Half paid preferred stock dividends, half repurchased preferred stock. A company that “never sells” is selling coins at a loss. And this is not even the most outrageous. The company bought 174,895 BTC from the beginning of the year to now—only sold 3,620. The proportion sold is so low it can be ignored. But the question is—why sell? To pay dividends. STRC preferred stock has a 12% annual dividend, which must be paid. Q2 net loss of 8.22 billion USD, loss per share 24.45 USD. A company that pays dividends by selling Bitcoin is no different from someone paying off Huabei with credit card debt. Ran Neuner said it even more harshly. The host of CNBC CryptoTrader publicly called on Strategy to pause buying coins— “Continuing to buy is eroding shareholder value.” He also pointed out: when MSTR stock price is below net asset value, issuing stock to buy Bitcoin actually dilutes the Bitcoin per share, directly harming existing shareholders. The logical contradiction is here— The company is selling coins below cost to support a 12% dividend preferred stock product. Yet hopes to buy back at a higher price in the future. The lower the selling price, the bigger the loss. The bigger the loss, the more selling is needed. But it's not that simple. The positive side says: 842,000 BTC still held, still the world's largest corporate holder. 4 billion USD cash reserve, enough to pay dividends for more than 2 years. Year-to-date purchases are 48 times the sales. “Just strategic rebalancing, not a collapse of faith.” The opposing side says: “Never sell” has become a joke. From 32 coins tentatively sold, to 3,588, to 1,638. From a 1.25 billion USD selling limit expanded to 5 billion USD. Saylor himself came out to clarify— “When I said ‘never sell’ it was for individuals. Strategy is a public company, not my wallet.” In plain language: my personal faith and the company's survival are two different things. What is truly scary? Not that Strategy sold 1,638 BTC. But once the market realizes this company holding 4% of the world's Bitcoin is shifting from net buying to net selling—panic itself will create more selling pressure. MSTR stock price fell from last August's high of 402 USD to today's 94 USD. Down 76.7%. This is not “faith.” This is reality. $BTC $MSTR #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币,规模腰斩

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