Let me "translate" Iran's diplomatic rhetoric for everyone:
From this passage, it can be seen that Iran's diplomatic stance remains tough, but positive signals have already appeared in actual actions, and Iran refuses to acknowledge that the Strait issue is caused by Iran, instead kicking the Strait issue back to the US.
The subtext is that the Strait can resume navigation, but only on the premise that the US lifts the blockade on Iran and acknowledges that the Strait issue is led by Iran and Oman.
So what is the practical significance for the US-Iran situation? Why have energy prices started to fall?
As I explained in the macro commentary pinned this week, the current focus on the US-Iran situation is not whether they will fight or cause trouble, but whether the Strait can be opened. As for who will open it, how it will be opened, and who will manage it, no one really cares for now.
Therefore, Iran starting communication with Oman to restore navigation is an important easing signal for international energy prices once a preliminary agreement is reached, so the market remains optimistic about Iran's diplomatic rhetoric.
As long as Iran and Oman reach and announce a new co-management plan for the Strait, it can be seen as a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Even if the US and Iran engage in verbal disputes again, as long as it does not affect actual navigation, it is not a big problem.
Currently, the focus of attention, I will rank the impact weights:
Whether the Iran-Oman co-management agreement is implemented > Whether actual navigation in the Strait resumes > Whether the US and Iran officially start negotiations > Verbal disputes and military friction between the US and Iran.
This impact weight will most likely become the main roadmap for US-Iran diplomacy at this stage: first an agreement, then restoration, solving the core Strait issue with both sides sitting down to talk, followed by the mutual verbal sparring phase!
As for the market, the short-term decline in international energy and US oil prices is a good proof. For now, US oil should first be watched to see if it can reach 75! #美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐
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