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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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大家可以看到,伊朗再次强调了拒绝了美国的关于海峡的协议,但是看原油价格,并未出现明显波动 这个情况再次印证了我前文的观点,目前伊朗与阿曼的双航道政策对市场的影响大于美伊之间的摩擦态度的 市场关注重点就是伊朗与阿曼能否让海峡恢复通航,结合另一则海上交数据来看,8月2日的通航数据虽然对比上周并未有明确的提升,但是关键信号是还是有船通过伊朗与曼德海峡通过 这意味着伊朗虽然对美的态度强势,不过并未100%关闭海峡,更深一层,市场会乐观预期只要伊朗与阿曼达成协议,海峡就可以逐渐恢复。 市场既然验证了我的逻辑是正确的,那么接下来本周关注重点还是伊朗与阿曼之间的海峡协议,这个协议优先于其他美伊的动态!#美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Let me "translate" Iran's diplomatic rhetoric for everyone: From this passage, it can be seen that Iran's diplomatic stance remains tough, but positive signals have already appeared in actual actions, and Iran refuses to acknowledge that the Strait issue is caused by Iran, instead kicking the Strait issue back to the US. The subtext is that the Strait can resume navigation, but only on the premise that the US lifts the blockade on Iran and acknowledges that the Strait issue is led by Iran and Oman. So what is the practical significance for the US-Iran situation? Why have energy prices started to fall? As I explained in the macro commentary pinned this week, the current focus on the US-Iran situation is not whether they will fight or cause trouble, but whether the Strait can be opened. As for who will open it, how it will be opened, and who will manage it, no one really cares for now. Therefore, Iran starting communication with Oman to restore navigation is an important easing signal for international energy prices once a preliminary agreement is reached, so the market remains optimistic about Iran's diplomatic rhetoric. As long as Iran and Oman reach and announce a new co-management plan for the Strait, it can be seen as a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Even if the US and Iran engage in verbal disputes again, as long as it does not affect actual navigation, it is not a big problem. Currently, the focus of attention, I will rank the impact weights: Whether the Iran-Oman co-management agreement is implemented > Whether actual navigation in the Strait resumes > Whether the US and Iran officially start negotiations > Verbal disputes and military friction between the US and Iran. This impact weight will most likely become the main roadmap for US-Iran diplomacy at this stage: first an agreement, then restoration, solving the core Strait issue with both sides sitting down to talk, followed by the mutual verbal sparring phase! As for the market, the short-term decline in international energy and US oil prices is a good proof. For now, US oil should first be watched to see if it can reach 75! #美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐

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