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Oil just dropped almost 5%… and the market may be telling a bigger story than today’s candle. For months, crude stayed elevated because traders were pricing in one risk above everything else: a disruption to Middle East oil supply, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Now that the U.S. and Iran are back at the negotiating table, part of that geopolitical risk premium is starting to fade. WTI has slipped to around $80.8, while Brent is back near $84. Deadass, that’s not just traders taking profits—it’s the market saying, “Maybe the worst-case scenario won’t happen after all.” That doesn’t mean the trend is settled. Oil is still one headline away from another sharp move. If negotiations break down or regional tensions flare up again, the supply-risk narrative could return overnight and push prices right back up. That’s why I’m watching the headlines more than today’s price action. The next big move probably won’t be decided by technicals alone—it’ll depend on whether the talks produce real progress or just another temporary pause. Sometimes the market isn’t trading oil itself. It’s trading the probability of what happens next. $GIGGLE #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐