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本周四场开奖，最后一张牌最要命兄弟们，这周科技圈+加密圈的四场财报，场场要命。 8月3日盘后：Palantir（PLTR）市场预期营收18.1亿美元，同比暴增80%；调整后EPS预期0.35美元，比去年同期的0.16美元翻了118%。但股价年初至今已经跌了约30%。期权市场定价财报当晚股价波动±9.6%。AI企业级需求到底有多硬？今晚见分晓。 8月4日盘后：AMD + SpaceX（双响炮） AMD：市场预期营收113.4亿美元，同比增约48%；调整后EPS预期1.61美元，比去年同期的0.48美元翻了三倍多。期权市场定价单周波动±10%。9位分析师里7个给买入评级，平均目标价582美元。算力芯片到底还有没有戏？明天揭晓。 SpaceX（SPCX）：上市以来第一份财报。市场预期营收69.3亿美元；但EBIT亏损约15.5亿美元，调整后每股亏损0.26美元。更狠的是——财报后第二天（8月6日），内部人可以出售最多20%的受限股份，最高达9.11亿股。可交易流通股占比将从5%直接翻倍到12%。目前做空押注高达246亿美元。马斯克的光环能扛住这一波吗？ 8月5日盘前：Circle（CRCL）——压轴市场预期营收约7.17亿美元，环比仅增长3.3%；EPS预期0.164美元，环比反而下降21.9%。USDC流通量从Q1的770亿美元微降至约730亿美元。但别忘了一件事——Circle刚拿了OCC国家信托银行牌照。这是稳定币第一股第一次带着银行牌照发财报。为什么我把Circle排第一？因为前面三份卷子，加密侧已经交了： Coinbase营收同比降了约18.5%，Robinhood加密收入掉了40%，Tether净利15亿美元。稳定币是加密市场流动性的基石。Circle的指引会直接影响DeFi的预期、交易平台的信心、甚至整个市场的流动性定价。而且现在整个市场情绪处在 “极度恐惧”区间。比特币从年初12.6万美元的高点跌了将近一半。稳定币供应自5月中旬以来减少了150亿美元——这是自2022年Terra崩盘以来最大跌幅。问题来了： Circle这份财报到底会怎么走？乐观派说：银行牌照是核武器。OCC直接监管储备管理，合规壁垒直接拉满。USDC上半年占了调整后稳定币交易量的约70%。这是监管套利结束后的赢家通吃。悲观派说：USDC流通量在跌、利率在降、加密市场在熊。利息收入占Circle营收95%，降息预期就是直接砍利润。而且股价从IPO高位已经回吐超过75%——市场早就把悲观预期打进去了。两边都有道理。但财报出来，只有一个方向是对的。 🗳️ 投票：你最关心哪一份？ A. Palantir —— AI企业级需求到底有多硬？ B. AMD —— 算力芯片还能不能打？ C. SpaceX —— 马斯克的光环能不能扛住246亿做空？ D. Circle —— 稳定币最后一张牌，是王炸还是烂牌？我自己的排序：D > B > A > C 理由很简单——稳定币是整张加密桌子的桌腿。桌子晃不晃，看桌腿稳不稳。你们呢？评论区打出你的排序👇 说句扎心的：科技股财报看的是“下个季度还能不能涨”。 Circle财报看的是“这个行业还有没有流动性”。前者决定你赚不赚钱。后者决定这个市场还活不活着。周四盘前，定闹钟。 $BTC $AMD $SPCX #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴

Brothers, when I woke up this morning, the world had changed. Brent crude oil once plunged 7.3%, down to $81.55. WTI crude oil fell below $80. At the same time—Bitcoin broke above $63,000. Ethereum rose over 2%, SOL rose over 3%. US stock futures are up, gold is up, government bonds are up. All risk assets are rising except oil. A year ago, this scene was simply impossible. Since 2022, Bitcoin and oil prices have been like conjoined twins—oil prices rise, BTC falls; oil prices fall, BTC rises. The logic is simple: high oil prices → high inflation → Federal Reserve rate hikes → all risk assets kneel. Bitcoin, as a "high beta risk asset," always gets dragged down. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the positive correlation between Bitcoin and oil was frighteningly high. Back then, you couldn’t tell if you were trading crypto or oil—the charts were almost identical. But now, these "troubled brothers" seem to be breaking up. Data doesn’t lie. In the past 12 months, the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and Brent crude oil has dropped from 0.67 to 0.41. This is not a minor adjustment. This is a structural break. In May this year, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and oil even turned negative at one point. Five-year data shows their long-term correlation coefficient is only 0.036—basically non-existent. What does this mean? If oil prices rise $100, Bitcoin can remain indifferent. If oil prices crash 7%, Bitcoin can rally in response. Three years ago, this was unimaginable. Why is this happening? Two reasons. First, ETFs have turned Bitcoin into an "institutional asset." This morning, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw their highest single-day net inflow in three months. BlackRock alone saw $183 million inflow. Institutional funds are treating Bitcoin as part of asset allocation, not as a "risk sentiment thermometer." Second, today’s oil price drop is fundamentally different. There are two types of oil price drops: Demand collapse → economic recession → BTC crashes along Supply increase → inflation cools → BTC actually rises Which one is today? Supply-side double whammy: Trump cancels strikes on Iran, US-Iran resume talks + OPEC+ approves daily production increase of 188,000 barrels in September. Geopolitical risk premium is fading, supply is increasing—this is the enemy of inflation, the friend of risk assets. Bitcoin rising is reasonable. To be blunt: Three years ago, Bitcoin was a "risk appetite amplifier"—it surged when the market was optimistic and crashed when the market panicked. Now, Bitcoin is becoming a "macro hedge tool." This process is not linear. There will be fluctuations, setbacks, and corrections that make you question everything. But the direction is clear. In the next three months, we may see an unprecedented pattern: Oil prices fall, BTC stays stable. Oil prices rise, BTC doesn’t necessarily fall. This is the most comfortable scenario for long-term holders. You no longer need to watch Middle East news for trading swings. You no longer need to guess whether the Fed’s next rate hike will be 25 or 50 basis points. You only need to do one thing: hold on. $BTC $BZ $CL #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐