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Losing 5 billion a year, yet the stock price is halved—SpaceX's financial report is not the answer, Starlink's path to profitability is One company is expected to have a net loss of nearly 5 billion USD in 2025. The rocket business is unprofitable, and xAI burns 6.4 billion USD annually. Another company, just over a month after going public, saw its stock price drop from a high of 225 USD to 108 USD, nearly halving. Market value evaporated by more than 1.2 trillion USD. These two are the same company. SpaceX released its first quarterly report since going public after the market closed on August 4. But the financial report itself is not important. What really matters are the few pages about Starlink in the report. Let's look at some numbers: In 2025, Starlink's revenue is 11.4 billion USD, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an operating profit of 4.4 billion USD. Starlink is carrying the entire SpaceX forward alone. In Q1 2026, Starlink's global users surpassed 10 million. Morgan Stanley expects Q2 users to reach 12 million, with an ARPU of about 65.5 USD. Wall Street's expectations for Q2 are: revenue of 6.88 billion USD, loss per share of 0.23 USD. Revenue is rising, users are increasing, but the company overall is still losing money. Because all the profits are being burned by Starship and xAI. What is the market betting on now? Not whether Q2 made a profit or loss. It's when Starlink can break even, when it can sustain itself independently, and even start to fund Musk's other "money-eating beasts." Morgan Stanley's target price for SpaceX is 300 USD. Breaking it down: space business is worth 8 USD, Starlink 128 USD, enterprise AI 152 USD. In other words, Wall Street believes SpaceX's real value is over half from AI, 40% from Starlink, and rocket launches—only worth 8 USD. Two scenarios, you choose: Scenario A (bullish): The financial report clearly provides a Starlink profitability timeline, such as achieving independent profitability around 2027. Long-term capital is willing to take over the 100 billion USD stock unlocking on August 6. SPCX stabilizes → US tech sentiment warms → crypto risk appetite rises. Scenario B (bearish): The report continues to paint a rosy picture, "still growing," "promising future," but can't specify when profits will come. No one dares to catch this 100 billion USD falling knife. The stock price continues to fall toward 100 USD or even below the IPO price. This also suppresses AI and space-related asset valuations. Here's a detail worth noting: The 911.5 million shares unlocking on August 6 are unconditional. As long as the report is released, regardless of the numbers, eligible insiders and employees can sell. But Musk's shares are locked until 2027. Understand? Employees can run, the boss can't. It's like the project team letting the community sell first, unlocking themselves last—do you think the community is panicking? SPCX now is exactly like many L2 projects. Revenue is rising, users are growing, the story sounds good—but it's just not profitable. The market isn't looking at current TPS, but "when can profitable revenue be realized." Starlink is SpaceX's "profitable revenue." If the report can't clarify this, the 100 billion USD unlocking is 100 billion USD selling pressure. Before the report lands, all the price increases are "expecting your expectations." Report after market close on August 4, unlocking on August 6. In these three days, any news will cause SPCX to fluctuate wildly. Don't bet on the report. Wait for clarity before acting. Cash is not cowardice; it's having bullets when others make mistakes. Finally, a question for everyone: Starlink earns 11.4 billion USD annually, but xAI burns 6.4 billion USD a year, Starship burns 3 billion USD a year—when do you think Starlink can fill this gap? $BTC $SPCX $XSPCX #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即