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My own judgment is that relying solely on the historical pattern of the halving cycle to predict the exact month and day this bull market will start has diminishing reference value, because the holding structure of Bitcoin in this cycle has changed. ETFs and institutional holdings account for an increasing proportion, and price behavior is more aligned with the macro-driven logic of traditional financial assets rather than the parabolic trend driven by retail investor sentiment. Therefore, rather than waiting for a clear trigger, it is better to closely monitor the ETF capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policy path, these two leading indicators. They can reflect shifts in capital attitude earlier than any single news event.