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灯塔说
灯塔说
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#停火预期兑现,WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% 全面下跌,这是什么信号? 早上起来美股、加密、黄金、原油全部都在下跌,油价的反向联动反应也没了 关键是这次的油价嗷嗷跌,却不见多少双方友好谈判的新闻。 昨天特朗普说跟伊朗谈判,会有好事情,结果转角就被伊朗打脸否认谈判 这波下跌除了双方默契停火影响导致下跌后,引发踩踏下跌。 原油就是这样吃消息的宏观风险资产 上条有提到,只要伊朗和特朗普都是迫于压力而重燃的战争,不会爆发全面战争 所以一旦有停的消息,油价会迅速降温。 目前来看,确实如此 但现在也并没有进入到确定性的谈判停火阶段 而是双方自发的默契停火,这种停火可能是战术性停火 一旦重新开火,油价会再次反弹 技术面上也临近关键支撑79-77位置,可以留意这里的止跌情况。如果中东响一炮再配合周四的议息决议或者沃什放鸽,反弹就来了。 【原油篇】 $CL
灯塔说
灯塔说
#特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 Why hasn't the first "ceasefire" window after the US-Iran tensions flared up without cooling oil prices? Yesterday, Iran proposed a 10-day ceasefire At night, Trump is not interested (Probably Iran has opened a short position on crude oil, and Trump has not closed his long position yet.) Today, the U.S. Secretary of State expressed openness to negotiations However, these reports have not cooled oil prices; instead, they have continued to rise This is probably the "spokesperson" mistake, and it remains just verbal But since this is a sign of this, there will be more short-term ceasefire calls in the near future. The market will be watching Trump's tone (it depends on when long positions take profits) Yesterday, Iran proposed a "temporary ceasefire" and opened 82 times, but no further response was received—woke up and was hurt Recently, stocks, gold, oil, and coins have all surged. Both stocks and gold coins have been going long to make profits, while only short oil is losing money But once the "temporary ceasefire" window is reached, oil prices will cool down rapidly. $CL

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