Post

Following yesterday's “delivery room good news,” another optimistic signal has emerged: Iran and Oman have conducted productive negotiations. My personal judgment is that the previously proposed joint management plan for the Strait of Hormuz by Oman should be recommended. The key depends on whether Iran still charges fees for ships passing through the strait. As long as there are no fees, the likelihood of this plan passing is very high. Subsequently, Iran can declare sovereignty over part of the Strait of Hormuz, but this will not affect the passage of ships. Ships from countries in conflict with Iran can choose to bypass via the Oman Strait. As long as no fees are charged, the US can accept this. This news signals a further confirmation following Qatar's resumption of navigation on the 26th, as announced yesterday. Once both sides begin active communication, it means the US-Iran situation is returning to a technical negotiation phase, and the negotiation window is gradually opening. The national crude oil price has further declined, which helps alleviate the geopolitical concerns from the weekend. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the US side and Trump's stance, as well as clearer and more optimistic signals from the Gulf countries. Once the US and Iran resolve the strait issue, besides the drop in energy prices, the situation before the US midterm elections should relatively ease. Both sides will focus on the technical negotiation phase. Before the midterm election results in November, the US and Iran will enter an optimistic window period. My main concern now is whether Iran can truly give up the right to charge fees for the strait, because the right to charge fees equals absolute management rights, which equals a security moat. #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展