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Serenity的中文贴
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接下来这段(一个月内)美股财报,基本就是 AI 主线的一次集中考试。
很多人只看财报当天涨跌,但我觉得更重要的是看几个问题:
AI 还在不在烧钱?
云厂商还愿不愿意继续加 Capex?
半导体设备订单有没有掉?
存储和 HBM 需求是不是真的撑得住?
数据中心的电力、散热、网络,能不能继续受益?
从这张日历看,覆盖面很完整。
谷歌、微软、Meta、亚马逊,看的是云计算、AI 广告、AI 基建投入。
特斯拉,看的是自动驾驶、Robotaxi、储能,以及市场还愿不愿意给它远期想象空间。
英特尔、AMD、Arm、Qualcomm,看的是芯片设计和算力周期。
KLA、Lam Research、Teradyne,看的是半导体设备和测试需求,这些公司往往能提前反映产业链信心。
SK 海力士、Kioxia、西部数据、SanDisk、Seagate,看的是存储周期,尤其是 HBM、DRAM、SSD、HDD 这些品类有没有继续涨价和扩产逻辑。
Vertiv、Eaton、Arista,看的是数据中心背后的“卖铲子”生意:电力、散热、交换机、网络基础设施。
Palantir、ServiceNow、Datadog、Atlassian、Figma,看的是 AI 软件到底有没有从故事走到真实付费。
所以这不是一张普通财报日历。
它更像是一张 AI 产业链体检表。
如果云厂商继续上调资本开支,说明 AI 基建还没停。
如果存储公司指引继续强,说明 HBM 和服务器 DRAM 需求还在。
如果设备公司订单健康,说明晶圆厂扩产预期还没被打断。
如果软件公司开始体现 AI 收入,说明 AI 不只是烧钱,也开始进入商业化阶段。
但反过来,如果这些公司集体释放谨慎信号,市场也会重新定价。
因为今年很多科技股涨的不是当下利润,而是未来几年 AI 增长的预期。
预期越高,财报容错率越低。
我的看法是:
这轮财报最值得看的不是谁超预期几个点,而是三个关键词:
Capex。
指引。
需求持续性。
短期股价会被情绪带着走,但中长期真正决定行情的,还是产业链有没有继续把钱投进去。
AI 主线如果没被证伪,波动只是波动。
但如果投入开始放缓,订单开始转弱,那市场就会从“讲故事”切回“算利润”。
接下来这几周,科技股的答案会一家公司一家公司公布。
看热闹的人盯涨跌。
真正做投资的人,看的是主线有没有变。
Serenity的中文贴
The earnings season for US tech giants is here! This may be the real trigger that determines the direction of the next rally!!!
Whenever the market reaches a critical point, what truly determines the direction is often not the news, but the earnings report.
With the July and August earnings season for US tech giants officially kicking off, over the next month or so, global capital will engage in a new round of competition centered around AI, semiconductors, cloud computing, and consumer electronics.
This is also worth noting for the crypto market.
The most noteworthy earnings reporting periods are July and August
📅 July 22
🔥 Google(GOOGL)
Key Focus:
* Progress in AI search commercialization
* Gemini's latest performance
* Cloud business growth
If AI investment continues to drive revenue growth, market sentiment is expected to keep heating up.
On the same day, there are:
🚗 Tesla(TSLA)
The key point is not how many cars were sold, but rather:
* Robotaxi
* Optimus robot
* AI training
* FSD commercialization
Tesla now increasingly resembles an AI company rather than a traditional automaker.
📅 July 23rd
Intel(INTC)
Can it regain its competitive edge in semiconductors?
Whether the wafer foundry business continues to improve will also affect sentiment across the entire chip sector.
📅 July 29
Microsoft (MSFT)
This is one of the most important financial reports in the entire AI market.
Market Concerns:
✔ Azure cloud growth
✔ Copilot commercialization revenue
✔ Incremental growth from OpenAI collaboration
If Microsoft continues to beat expectations, it is very likely to further boost the AI sector.
Same day:
Meta(META)
Will the advertising business continue to grow rapidly?
Will AI recommendation algorithms continue to improve monetization capabilities?
Will capital expenditure expand further?
These are all key data points for capital monitoring.
📅 July 30
🍎 Apple (AAPL)
Can AI features truly drive the iPhone replacement cycle?
Can the service business maintain high growth?
Apple's performance will impact the entire consumer electronics sector.
Meanwhile:
📦 Amazon (AMZN)
AWS cloud business
AI infrastructure
E-commerce profit margins
will all become market focal points.
August remains wonderful
Early August:
* Palantir(PLTR)
* AMD
* Advanced Micro Computer Corporation (SMCI)
These are all important members of the AI computing power industry chain.
And the real "grand finale" is:
August 26 — NVIDIA (NVDA)
It can be said that every Nvidia earnings report has the potential to redefine the valuation of the entire AI sector.
Blackwell chip deliveries, data center revenue, and future guidance could all directly impact the global trend of technology assets.
Why should crypto investors pay attention too?
Many people think US stocks are US stocks, and crypto is crypto.
In fact, the synergy between the two is getting stronger and stronger.
In the past two years, it has become clear that the following are evident:
👉 AI concept stocks rose, and risk assets broadly benefited.
👉 With Nasdaq hitting new highs, BTC and ETH are often more likely to attract capital attention.
👉 If tech giants collectively exceed expectations and global risk appetite rises, capital may flow further into the crypto market.
Conversely, if several leading companies simultaneously issue pessimistic guidance, not only will U.S. stocks come under pressure, but short-term sentiment in the crypto sector may also be affected.
Therefore, this month or so is not only a critical window for U.S. stocks, but also an important period that digital asset investors cannot ignore.
My view
What truly determines the market's future direction will not necessarily be the endless daily news, but rather the "report cards" delivered by these tech giants.
Is AI a genuine need, or a capital story?
Can corporate earnings still support current valuations?
These answers will gradually be revealed during the upcoming earnings season!!
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