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Snapshot at Aug 11, 2026, 22:52

#Spot ETF Capital Inflow, Can BTC and ETH Take Over? Recent BTC and ETH Market: Capital Has Returned, but the Trend Has Not Yet Returned $BTC $ETH Recently, both BTC and ETH have experienced a rebound, but it can still only be defined as a range recovery; a major reversal has not yet been confirmed. ✔ BTC Price Structure After BTC surged to 65000—66000 and then fell back, it is currently around 64000, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant. 63000—63500: Current first support 61500—62500: Retest area after breaking down 59000—60000: Major core support 65000—66000: Short-term main resistance 67000—68000: Second target after breakout 70000—72000: Pressure zone deciding if the major trend can reverse As long as BTC holds 63000, the overall movement still belongs to the 60000—70000 large box range oscillation; but if it effectively breaks below 63000, the market will most likely retest 62000 or even fall back near 60000. A true strengthening requires reestablishing above 66000 and further breaking through 70000—72000. ✔ ETH Price Structure ETH has been repeatedly blocked around 1935—1950 and is currently back near 1870, with short-term strength clearly weaker than a few days ago. 1850—1870: Current first support 1800—1820: Ascending structure defense area 1700—1750: Deep retest zone after breaking 1800 1935—1950: Short-term main resistance 2000—2020: Round number and previous high resistance 2100—2200: Major trend recovery zone If ETH can hold 1850 and climb back above 1895, there is still a chance to challenge 1950 and 2000 again. If 1850 is effectively broken, the short-term rebound structure will weaken significantly, and the next step will most likely test 1800—1820. ETH’s major trend is only considered to start recovering once it firmly stands above 2000. ✔ Why Does the Price Still Struggle to Rise Despite ETF Capital Inflow? Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow exceeding $1.1 billion, yet prices still did not break resistance levels. This indicates that capital has indeed returned, but the new buying is being absorbed by selling pressure above. Currently, ETF funds provide support from below but have not created a supply vacuum to push prices through resistance continuously. ✔ Key Upcoming Events On August 12, the US CPI will be released, and on August 13, the PPI will be announced; if inflation exceeds expectations, the US dollar and Treasury yields may strengthen again, making BTC and ETH likely to continue testing support downward. Conversely, cooling inflation would favor a rebound in risk assets. On August 20 early morning, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be published, and the market will reassess the future interest rate path. My judgment is: BTC remains in a large range between 60000—70000, while ETH is in a directional choice phase between 1850—2000. BTC holding 63000 gives ETH a chance to continue the relay; once BTC breaks below 63000, ETH’s downside elasticity usually increases. Before key events are announced, do not rush to bet on a one-sided move; wait for prices to truly break resistance or fall below support to confirm the next trend segment.

#Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX On Monday, SK Hynix opened with a double kill of longs and shorts. I shorted at the 1050 upper rail, targeting a take profit at 950. On Monday, SK Hynix's opening first dropped then rallied. The contract first dipped near 1000, sweeping out bottom-fishing long positions, then quickly pulled up to 1045–1050, clearing out those who chased shorts at the open. Completing a double kill of longs and shorts in a short time, this movement looks more like a re-pricing and concentrated leverage clearing at the open, rather than the market having chosen a direction. ✔ Why does a double kill of longs and shorts occur? SK Hynix contracts trade 24 hours, while the Korean spot stock reopens later, requiring the contract price to quickly align with the spot price. Previously, SK Hynix had a continuous sharp drop, with many bottom-fishing positions clustered near 1000, and many rebound short positions near 1050. Liquidity concentrated at the open was released, first sweeping long stop losses, then clearing shorts on the way up, resulting in violent price swings. ✔ Why did I choose to short at 1050? I did not chase shorts near 1000 but waited for the price to rebound to around 1050 before entering. 1050 is simultaneously close to: ✔ The upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel ✔ Monday's opening rebound high ✔ Previous trapped positions and short-term resistance zone ✔ The liquidity high point after the double kill of longs and shorts Compared to chasing shorts during a sharp drop, shorting at 1050 has a clearer invalidation point and a more reasonable risk-reward ratio. ✔ Upcoming price path 1050: short entry point 1010–1000: first support and round number level 1000–985: core area determining if the decline continues 950: extended take profit target after breaking support 1070–1080: if price stabilizes here, the short logic fails My take profit target is 950, but I do not treat 950 as a guaranteed level. After price reaches 1000–985, a rebound is likely first. Only if this area is effectively broken and the rebound fails to retake it will the downside space to 950 truly open. ✔ Trading iron rule Never bet on the first candlestick at the open. The first candlestick at the open bears the task of re-pricing and clearing liquidity and can completely reverse within minutes. Without structural confirmation, the first candlestick at the open has nearly zero win rate for me. #Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX Let the market kill both longs and shorts first, then wait for the price to return to a clear support or resistance level. This trade is not about chasing shorts just because SK Hynix fell a lot, but about waiting for a rebound to touch the channel upper rail before shorting under a larger bearish bias. The direction can be wrong, but entry position, stop loss, and risk-reward ratio must be clear.

Snapshot at Aug 10, 2026, 08:57

During the weekend volatility, I opened a small long position on LAB at 0.122 LAB$LAB The weekend market showed no clear trend, so I opened a small long position on LAB around 0.122. This is neither a trend reversal trade nor a long-term bottom fishing. I am trading a potential oversold rebound after the price returns to a short-term support zone. LAB has dropped nearly 90% in the past month and is still in a downtrend on the larger timeframe. But 0.122 is close to the recent low range of 0.118–0.122. My entry is near the lower boundary of this range, so it’s not chasing a breakout, and the invalidation point downward is relatively easy to identify. The logic behind this long position mainly includes three points: First, there is short-term support around 0.118–0.122, making it easier to measure the space for further decline versus rebound. Second, the area between 0.129–0.132 is a clear resistance zone recently. If the price rebounds to this level, it can provide a reasonable take-profit range. Third, I only took a small position. For counter-trend rebound trades like this, position sizing is more important than directional judgment. However, the trading environment for this position is not ideal. Weekend liquidity is weak, and small-cap coins are more prone to spikes and false breakouts. Currently, LAB has a high proportion of long accounts, and the funding rate is positive, indicating that many funds are still betting on a rebound at low levels. If the price continues to fall, these crowded long positions may accelerate the decline. Therefore, my current trading plan is: 0.129–0.132 is the first take-profit zone; I will reduce 30%–40% of the position upon reaching it. 0.139–0.145 is the main take-profit zone; if the price breaks above 0.132 with volume, I will observe the remaining position here. 0.150–0.155 is only an extended target for now, to be considered only if the price breaks and holds above 0.145 with volume. For stop loss, if the 4-hour candle closes below 0.118, I will consider exiting proactively; to prevent sudden spikes, a hard stop loss can be set around 0.113–0.114. Based on the entry price of 0.122: If it falls to 0.114, the loss is about 6.6%. If it rises to 0.132, the profit is about 8.2%. If it rises to 0.145, the profit is about 18.9%. So 0.129–0.132 is more suitable for reducing position and lowering risk, while 0.139–0.145 is the main target range for this trade. Additionally, third-party unlocking schedules indicate a possible LAB token release around August 14. If the price cannot reclaim 0.129–0.132 by August 12–13, I will consider reducing position early to avoid uncertainty from the unlocking event. I am not buying LAB for a reversal at 0.122, but rather using a clear stop loss to bet on a rebound from the low support back to the upper range. The entry position is acceptable, but the trend and capital structure are average, so this is only suitable for a small position trial. This is just a record of my personal trading logic and not investment advice.

Snapshot at Aug 09, 2026, 18:41

OKB suddenly surged, what happened? $OKB Recently, OKB suddenly rose from the 85–86 USD range to around 95 USD, increasing about 5%–6% in 24 hours, with a gain of over 10% in the past 7 days. There was no new massive burn announcement this time. I tend to believe: the X Layer ecosystem news ignited the move, OKB’s low circulating supply amplified the increase, and after breaking 90 USD, contract funds were attracted to chase the rally. The most direct catalyst was Circle officially integrating native USDC and CCTP into X Layer on August 7. Previously, X Layer mainly used the cross-chain version of USDC; now it can directly use Circle-issued native USDC with 1:1 redemption, and transfer funds across 25 other chains via CCTP. The significance for OKB is not that "listing USDC immediately generates huge revenue," but that X Layer’s stablecoin liquidity, institutional settlement, and DeFi infrastructure become more complete. Recent on-chain data also shows improvement: ✔ X Layer TVL reached about $117 million, up 2.7% in 24 hours ✔ Stablecoin supply reached $2.078 billion, up 2.67% in 7 days ✔ DEX trading volume in the past 7 days was about $548 million, up 10.76% ✔ Daily transaction count about 1.44 million OKB is the only Gas asset on X Layer, and future deployment of the Exchange OS market will require staking OKB. What the market is trading on this time is actually the expectation that "X Layer is moving from storytelling to real expansion." The second reason is the chip structure. OKB’s total supply is fixed at 21 million, with a current market cap of about $2 billion. The 24-hour trading volume increased by about 30%, but overall liquidity is still not deep. For a coin with low supply and relatively concentrated trading, once sustained spot buying appears, price elasticity will be significantly higher than BTC or ETH. Contracts are also amplifying the trend. OKB open interest increased about 18%–20% in 24 hours; after breaking 90 USD, some short positions were liquidated. But this cannot be fully defined as a short squeeze. Because while the price rose, open interest also increased, indicating that besides short covering, many new longs entered. Pure short squeezes usually show price rising with open interest decreasing. The good news is that the current funding rate is only about 0.0025%–0.01%, not yet at extreme long crowding. So my judgment is: This rally has real ecological catalysts and capital amplification after breaking 90 USD; it’s not a baseless "pump by manipulators." However, native USDC has just launched, and how much new capital it can bring to X Layer still needs further data verification. The current price increase speed already outpaces the growth of on-chain fundamentals. Next, focus on three levels: ✔ Holding above 95 USD to have a chance to challenge 100 USD ✔ Pullback to 90 USD without breaking it means the breakout structure remains valid ✔ Falling below 90 USD may retest the 85–86 USD range This is not a violent move caused by another supply cut. It’s more like the market finally starting to reprice the ecological progress of X Layer.

Snapshot at Aug 09, 2026, 09:43

#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ SPCX surged to 141 then fell back to 135, more like a weekend short squeeze on $SPCX Last night SPCX suddenly jumped from around 135 to 141.8, and many thought some major positive news had come out. But I tend to believe this was a localized short squeeze driven by a combination of “positive sentiment + weekend premium + forced short liquidations,” not the spot market suddenly repricing SPCX to 141 USD. First, note that 141.8 is not the Nasdaq spot price but the SPCXUSDT perpetual contract price. Spot closed at 133.11 USD on Friday, and with US stock markets closed over the weekend, the perpetual contract lost its spot arbitrage constraint and the order book depth was relatively thin. Once concentrated buying appeared, the price was easily pushed up quickly. 141.8 represents about a 6.5% premium over the spot close, a spread that is difficult to sustain long-term. Of course, this rally is not without fundamental support. SPCX spot had already risen about 15.8% on Friday with a volume of 242 million shares. Argus upgraded its rating to “Buy” with a target price of 160 USD; the initial unlock did not see the expected concentrated sell-off. These factors pushed market sentiment bullish. But what really pushed the price quickly from 135 to 141.8 seems more like shorts being forced to cover. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations totaled about 929,000 USD, nearly six times the long liquidations. After breaking through 135, short stop-losses, forced liquidations, and chasing buyers all bought simultaneously, forming a typical short squeeze. More importantly, open interest actually dropped about 7% after the surge. If new longs were the main force entering, we would usually see price and open interest rising together; now the price surged sharply while open interest declined, indicating many buy orders came from short covering rather than new long positions. This also explains why the price quickly fell back to 135 after hitting 141. The buying from forced short liquidations is one-off. Those who needed to stop loss did, those who had to liquidate did, and the mechanical buying demand disappeared; meanwhile, 141 was too expensive compared to the spot close, so profit-taking naturally began and the weekend premium faded. Therefore, falling from 141 back to 135 does not necessarily mean the positive factors failed. More accurately, after the short squeeze ended, the price returned near the spot anchor. What really needs to be watched next is how the spot prices on Monday: ✔ Spot volume increases and holds above 135, indicating real capital willing to support, then there is a chance to challenge 141–142 again ✔ Holding between 133–135 likely leads to high volatility and consolidation ✔ Breaking below 133 or even 130 suggests the weekend rally was mainly driven by contract short squeezes 141.8 was a price squeezed out by weekend liquidity, premium, and forced short liquidations. 135 is the level that needs real spot capital validation.

#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX SpaceX rises after unlocking: unlocking does not equal bad news Many people see "911.5 million shares unlocked" and automatically translate it as "911.5 million shares dumped." This step is already wrong. On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares simply changed from "cannot be sold" to "can be sold," it is not a new issuance and will not dilute the total share capital. SpaceX currently has about 13.182 billion shares outstanding, and this unlocked batch accounts for only 6.9%. Even if all enter circulation, the theoretical float would only increase from 638.9 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, about 11.8% of total shares. What really needs to be looked at is who can sell, at what cost, and whether the market can absorb it. SpaceX has not disclosed the uniform average cost of this unlocked batch, but public data can provide some reference: As of the end of March, the company still had 133.8 million Class A options with an average exercise price of $27.65; and 358.2 million Class B options with an average exercise price of only $8.22. The most recent internal transaction price in December 2025 was $421, which, adjusted for this year's 5-for-1 split, is equivalent to $84.2 per share. Compared to the current price of $133.11, many employees and early investors indeed still have significant unrealized gains. Reducing holdings, paying taxes, improving living standards, and diversifying risks are all normal, so potential selling pressure is not fake. But "having profits" does not mean "selling all on the same day." The employee resale filing submitted on August 4 covers about 136.95 million shares, about 15% of the nominal first batch unlocking scale, and registration to sell still does not mean the shares have been sold. Why did the price rise after unlocking? First, unlocking panic had already been priced in advance. Before unlocking, SpaceX's stock price had retraced nearly half from the June high; concerns about unlocking, overvaluation, and huge capital expenditures had already been repeatedly priced in. Second, market absorption was better than expected. On the unlocking day, August 6, the price rose 6.1%, and the next day rose another 15.9%, closing at $133.11, with a single-day volume reaching 242 million shares. Price rising on high volume rather than falling better indicates whether selling pressure is out of control than the "nominal number of shares unlocked." Third, short positions were too crowded. As of July 29, about 219.3 million shares of SpaceX were shorted, equivalent to 34% of the original float. The expected massive dumping did not occur, and short covering naturally amplified the rebound. However, the recent rise cannot be entirely explained as "unlocking bad news fully priced in." SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.538 billion; rating upgrades and the overall tech stock rebound also provided additional catalysts. Meanwhile, the company's Q2 capital expenditure was as high as $18.369 billion, of which AI business accounted for $15.828 billion. This is the real long-term valuation issue to digest. So my judgment is: The first batch unlocking did not turn into the market-expected concentrated sell-off, indicating current absorption is stronger than expected, but supply pressure has not completely ended. About 319 million shares will be released on August 20, with further batches unlocking in September and October. By December 8, theoretically, tradable shares may rise to 40% of total shares. The key next is to see if the $135 issue price can hold with volume. If subsequent unlocking continues to increase and the stock price can still hold $135, it means low-cost chips are truly being absorbed by the market. Unlocking just opens the door. The real bad news is if low-cost chips really run out and the market cannot absorb them.