People often ask me if this "Short God" is shorting $BTC now. If it drops below 64,000 tonight, deeply oversold, and the fee rate hasn't turned extremely negative yet—chasing shorts at this position just fuels others' short squeezes. The meaning of Short God isn't to short every day or cut losses whenever it turns green; it's about daring to go heavy when it's time to short and being able to hold back when it's not. Right now is the latter: the range hasn't broken, the trend isn't confirmed, so the best position is to stay flat and wait for signals. We'll talk direction again if it breaks above 66,000 or below 62,000. Resisting the urge to bet is itself a kind of bet.

NVIDIA teamed up with six Wall Street giants to create a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing platform, packaging computing power as an "investable asset class." It sounds very appealing, but let me ask a sobering question: when a business starts needing Wall Street to securitize and monetize its future income in advance, it usually means it can no longer sustain this expansion pace with its own cash flow. This is not a bearish view on NVIDIA, just a reminder—the AI narrative is shifting from "making real money by selling shovels" to "using financial engineering to stay alive." I've seen too many cycles; the moment the story is told most convincingly is often when things are hottest.

Oil prices surged 5% tonight, and that usual joke in the group chat about "war, safe haven, bullish for Bitcoin" popped up on schedule again. I'll say it straight: that's completely wrong. This round of geopolitical market moves is not priced as a safe haven at all; it's priced as a rate hike scenario—oil up → inflation → US Treasury yields hold → risk assets all get hit together. Gold hitting new highs is the real safe haven; Bitcoin not moving is the best counterproof. If you really believe "war is bullish for crypto," first take a look at where the 2-year US Treasury yield is heading. The most costly mistake in trading is never getting the direction wrong, but betting heavily on a story that sounds plausible but is actually the opposite.

What’s it like to hold a position that’s going against the current market trend? I’m experiencing it right now: the storage leg is floating at a loss, and the short-term market is still slamming down on me. But a floating loss doesn’t mean you’re wrong — this is exactly the most counterintuitive part of low-frequency, large bets. You’re betting on the direction that the fundamentals will realize, not the candlestick that opens tomorrow morning. What really kills you is never the floating loss itself, but the itchiness during the floating loss: either panicking and cutting at the lowest point, or getting greedy and adding positions to lower the cost. My answer is simple: place your stop loss at a wide level where the trend truly fails, then shut up and hold. Only by enduring floating losses do you deserve to ride the trend.

People often ask me what I'm holding and at what entry points, wanting to copy. I bluntly say: you can copy the asset, but you can't copy the position size, and you definitely can't copy the mindset. For the same direction, I dare to hold a heavy position because I've calculated the worst loss I can bear; if you copy it, one pullback will make you panic and lose sleep, resulting in completely opposite outcomes even with the same trade. In trading, it's not about information advantage in the end, but whether you have confidence in your own position size. Instead of copying others' answers, it's better to first understand how much loss you can truly tolerate.

Here's a counterintuitive mindset: after being in this industry for a long time, you'll realize the most costly thing isn't losses, but the frustration from "missing out" on profits. Seeing the price continue to rise after selling early, or missing out on a big move, feels worse than actually losing money. Many people start revenge trading from this point, making things messier and messier. In poker, this is called tilt—after losing a good hand, you start playing bad hands as if they were good. There's only one cure: admit the loss and step away. If today's market isn't favorable, just stay out; the market will be open tomorrow. Controlling your impulses is more valuable than predicting the market accurately.

Tonight $BTC dropped again, below 64,000, and those chasing shorts in the group got excited again. I poured cold water: both the 15-minute and 1-hour charts have hit deep oversold levels, and the bulls were just liquidated in the previous round. Adding shorts at this point is just fueling a short squeeze for others. I'm not saying it will go up here, but what you're chasing is not the trend, it's the tail end of emotion. Real shorts should be set up calmly at high levels, not rushing in with red eyes after it has dropped 2,000 points. Many people see the right direction, but few can hold on and enter correctly — that's the difference.

Let me share my own position logic: I am genuinely bullish on storage and memory fundamentals—AI creates a rigid demand for memory, and big companies are investing tens of billions to expand capacity, so the logic is very solid. But being bullish doesn't mean blindly going all in. My approach is to keep a base position and gradually reduce it in batches on rebounds above my cost, rather than chasing to add positions below cost to lower the average price. Retail investors love to "buy more as prices fall, turning small positions into large ones," but by the time fundamentals haven't yet materialized, they get liquidated first. Low-frequency large bets mean heavily backing the right direction but always leaving an exit for each leg, not going all in betting you won't be wrong. Direction and survival are two different things.