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A few more words about Wednesday's data for the crypto circle: Currently in the crypto circle As long as the data reduces the probability of a rate hike, it is good news and bullish. As long as the data increases the probability of a rate hike, it is bad news and bearish. It's that simple. The stock market bulls have already been exiting gradually. I am bearish on the stock market, but due to previously loose data reducing the probability of a rate hike, the crypto circle is a bit more optimistic than the stock market. However, as a high-risk asset, defensive strategies are recommended. Many experts in Bitcoin cannot make a clear judgment here; there are reasons for both bullish and bearish views, so do not enter the market prematurely. $BTC $QQQ #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

Many people think August is an opportunity for $BTC Bitcoin, but the current situation is unclear. First of all, the situation here is not clear, but there are many optimistic voices! And the optimism is due to several consecutive days of gains this week, but from the daily chart, all are small bullish candles, following a large bearish candle before. For now, I still lean bearish; the market needs some time for sentiment to push directly upward. Considering the current state of US tech stocks and Korean retail investors, I really don't have the courage to call a long, but if a real trend emerges, I won't go against it. A stop loss around 1% fluctuation nearby is reasonable, given the large volatility before and that we are at a crossroads here. (So I previously advised to wait until next week to act) However, if you follow short-term KOLs, their suggested ranges are probably wider. (Maybe, I'm just estimating, no statistics here) As mentioned earlier, next week's volatility should be relatively large, referencing the previous big bullish and bearish candles. Let's wait for the next data; don't forget to watch the stock market, as I believe there will be some linkage effect. (I still think tech stocks haven't bottomed; as I said before, there's too much impulsive short-term capital) Gold has been discussed a lot recently, but I think the opportunity is already lost. I shared the general structure early on (the purple area hasn't changed), and as a relatively large capital chip structure, the timing of selling and buying has been very long. I suggest waiting for the next opportunity. (The buying and selling of gold is actually a complex issue; with large capital involved, liquidity is very rich, meaning more participant types and choices, and even the main strategies are influenced by macroeconomics. Well, actually, I'm not very skilled 😓. Technically, the structure looks good, but as a risk precaution, you have to consider what's behind it) I've been working overtime a lot recently, so I don't know what else to say. This is also a preliminary analysis and a trading forecast. In short: Wait for data, wait for the trend, and follow the trend. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 $BTC $QQQ

The data is out, and the discrepancy is larger than I expected. I originally anticipated the non-farm payrolls to increase by about 40,000, which is weak. I suggest everyone take action next week; I am also watching. I posted an earlier version with some wording issues that revealed bias 😓. Thinking about it, with no trades, I still intend to remain completely on the sidelines. $BTC $QQQ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？

The biggest cognitive upgrade since entering the crypto circle is realizing the high volatility of the crypto market! Most people probably realize this when they mention the crypto world, but after entering, it seems no one really takes it seriously. In fact, many derivative conclusions can be drawn from this point. Here are 2 points to teach you. 1⃣️ First, the coins in the crypto circle depend on BTC's cycles, and most altcoins eventually face extinction (mostly during bear markets, and there is actually a process; emotional instant destruction is obviously just a few cases of sudden crashes). Making money is simple: go long in bull markets and short in bear markets, but most people can't do this. Bulls and bears involve many aspects, with no unified standard, but they ultimately provide a guiding mindset. We need to be aware of bull and bear markets. When you pay attention to altcoins, it's often when a specific altcoin is being hyped the most and is the hottest. At this time, you usually need to follow the trend. Support and resistance are often calculated on a weekly basis, with one day covering the price changes of the past week. If you don't have a stop-loss mindset, don't touch altcoins. I have basic altcoin trading knowledge in my previous articles; you can scroll back to check. 2⃣️ Here's how to judge an altcoin. First, confirm two common facts: 1. In the crypto world, very few altcoin projects are reliable. Most projects launched will die or lose vitality within one cycle. (So our goal should always be firm on short-term speculation; except for BTC, don't have faith.) 2. The risk of going long on popular altcoins is much lower than going short. Strongly recommend watching my related tutorials! Patterns of speculation: Speculation usually appears in new coins, leading coins with room for hype, and coins with some real fundamentals (this accounts for about 3% or less of total coins), so you can focus on these coins. (In bull and extreme bear markets, sector rotation phenomena also occur, which veterans have different patterns for. I don't rely on this and have limited experience.) The most basic is to look at the 24-hour trading volume in Chart 1. For a coin, especially an altcoin, only if there are buyers and sellers (sufficient liquidity) is there room for speculation. Potential market makers will keep trading to harvest profits. This judgment standard first requires a basic specific 24-hour trading volume number (generally above 2 million; you can observe the gainers and popular lists to form your own standard), then the percentage of 24-hour trading volume relative to circulating market cap. Obviously, popular altcoins may have trading volumes several times their circulating market cap. In plain language, check the popular contract rankings, gainers, and losers lists daily, and find those with the highest 24-hour trading volume. Next, use weekly charts to define resistance and support levels. Usually, stop-loss is set at 5% of the current price (this is also in my tutorials, including examples of weekly resistance in my spot trading tutorials), plus the calculation method for the surrender wick (when to stop going long). To go deeper in crypto, you also need some basic understanding of sectors. Layer 1 builds the infrastructure, charges for on-chain transactions, winner takes all, only a few giants make money, usually with large market caps, and all network data is publicly available. I have done some simple research. (Only a few are reliable; others with no users or income will eventually die from chronic exhaustion; the money to burn is insufficient.) (If interested, use search engines and AI to verify yourself; it's really not complicated. Watching videos and others' conclusions is fine, but you must see reliable source data with your own eyes!) Layer 2 depends on Layer 1 to compensate for its performance or functional shortcomings. DeFi is about finance; its value mostly depends on the total financial volume customers have in the project (key point). Some data is hard to find but still accessible, plus security (there are always hacker incidents on-chain). The gaming sector is always speculative, mainly because blockchain games are relatively niche and have suffered severe decline, reportedly at least 90% (mainly due to lack of objective standards and incomplete data for retail investors). Meme coins are popular in bull markets but quite bleak in bear markets. Small-cap meme coins are almost like lottery tickets, spawning many peculiar selection techniques and cultures. My advice is to stay away. AI is mostly application-layer products. I don't have much authority but some experience. I can only say speculation accounts for a large part, practical use is somewhat lacking, but the leaders are relatively stable and still have room for speculation. (It still needs to be discussed by category.) Cloud computing and cloud storage projects in crypto are basically superfluous and hard to evaluate. I tend to avoid these types of coins. In short, you need to understand the fundamentals and speculation of sectors, at least know what the coin is for. Trading coins without any knowledge is just ignorance, purely relying on luck. Good luck. Further research is simple. Many teams in crypto have red flags. Simply checking their official website, whether the roadmap is implemented or just empty talk, on-chain activity, and project progress can help judge. More specifically, check their official news dates, social media activity (whether they post frequently), coin popularity, GitHub updates, and join their communities to see the members (avoid pyramid scheme coins! They easily create emotional illusions, especially when rewarding you for sharing coins on social media or forming cliques). Also, check the team's history. Many wonder where to find this data; most contract detail pages provide guidance with addresses to check the project website and community. Further, you need some simple tools (some websites are comprehensive but provide data in compressed packages, so I won't recommend them). I recommend ROOTDATA (requires VPN). It provides relatively comprehensive basic info on coins, verification links for related team websites and communities, and is considered authoritative. Note that the coin's official website is equally important and can provide much deeper information! Research also involves many skills; don't be arrogant just because you have tools or websites! ℹ️ The most important point: 24-hour trading volume is the foundation of everything! Enter after volume is large, not before waiting for volume to increase! Crypto is mainly speculation; fundamentals take a long time and skills to uncover, requiring long patience and with a chance of failure. You can first refer to my spot trading tutorials. (Even so, trading volume remains important! Coins with no buyers or sellers won't surge or crash. Weekly setups with high success rates are mostly seen in new coins because of relatively high popularity, many traders, but fuzzy price consensus.) $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切

After some thought, the probability of the following views has decreased compared to previous articles because I don't know what retail investors think or whether institutions will change. First, I am bearish this week and suggest that everyone, regardless of being long or short, should preferably avoid trading this week to reduce trades. Korean retail investors quickly respond with leverage, and tech stocks have started a new cycle of investment again (using money others lent them to invest in others, creating a cycle). So the tech stock environment is still not good, and we need to avoid bad environments. Institutions have indeed poured in funds, so generally they plan to make money and then leave, but from the K-line chart, the bears clearly have some advantage. (However, capital inflow is pushing the bulls up.) So I’m giving up this week, since I’ve made some profit and will rest for a week to observe. $QQQ $EWY $BTC #韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙

Korean retail investors have really collapsed. However, looking at the structure, there is a probability of entering a consolidation phase, consolidating for a period of time. (Retail investor leverage has been wiped out) It's very difficult to calculate the average price in the retail market; institutions retreated quite early. (As mentioned before) Let's observe whether there will be consolidation behavior around here to ease the current downtrend. Korean stocks still have chips too concentrated, with a few companies having extremely high weights, relying on retail investors to buy. $EWY #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动

Looking at the macro situation. I am optimistic about a bullish trend on Thursday. There might be a rebound rally here. This assessment is mainly based on some news (personal aspects) and the shift in chip distribution. But it’s still quite reliable; the news-driven push is a trigger. However, the probability that the data will meet expectations is quite high. Let’s wait for the right moment to observe and try to take a right-side long position. $BTC $QQQ #美联储即将公布利率决议

Tsinghua Changxin is about to go public... My personal view is to run fast; this is risk avoidance. (Don't trust soft ads and hype) It's that simple.