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CPI has reduced the risk of a rate hike, but only PPI can tell us whether inflation is truly gone or just taking a breather. The CPI data is out — year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both exactly as expected. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 48% to 38%, while the probability of no change surged to 62%. Good news, right? Then Bitcoin surged to 64,400, only to crash back down to 63,500. You read that right. Good news came out, but the price fell. Why? Because the market never pays for "meeting expectations," it only celebrates "exceeding expectations." A 3.4% CPI is exactly what everyone predicted. No surprises, no shocks, nothing. Housing costs are still rising, contributing two-thirds of the monthly increase. Core inflation at 2.5% is still half a point above the Fed's 2% target. The real meaning of this data is — The risk of a rate hike has decreased, but the possibility of a rate cut? Not increased at all. Sygnum Bank's CIO put it plainly: "The economy is gradually cooling down, with neither recession fears nor renewed hawkish pricing." In plain language: inflation isn’t dead, just catching its breath. What really makes me nervous is the following statement. Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, said something last night that I suggest you read three times: "The CPI data meeting expectations... doesn’t solve many problems. The more interesting detail is that the Bitcoin options market still charges a high premium for protective puts. Among options expiring at the end of August, the cost of downside strike prices near $60,000 is higher than the equivalent upside strike prices near $70,000." Got it? The market is willing to pay more to buy insurance against Bitcoin dropping to 60,000 than to buy a lottery ticket for Bitcoin rising to 70,000. This is not a bullish signal; it’s fear priced in. Grachev also said the second half — "Tomorrow’s PPI will be the next checkpoint to see if this premium starts to ease." At 8:30 PM tonight, the US July PPI will be released. Previous PPI: monthly rate -0.3%, annual rate 5.5%. Market expects monthly rate to turn positive at 0.2%. Two possibilities: PPI below expectations → production-side inflation cools comprehensively, probability of pausing rate hikes in September rises further, Bitcoin may break through the 64,400 resistance. PPI above expectations → factories are still raising prices, costs continue to pass downstream, rate hike expectations return, Bitcoin faces a test of the 63,000 support level. CPI shows how much consumers have already paid. PPI shows how much producers still need to raise prices. The former tells you the past; the latter tells you the future. One more unsettling signal. Analyst Rekt Capital posted a chart on X: Bitcoin’s rebound strength from the 63,000 area has declined from 6.27% → 5.83% → 3.18% → now only 1.15%. Each rebound is weaker than the last. Bitfinex’s research team also said: Bitcoin has been rejected six times in the 65,000-65,500 range. Six times. The same ceiling, hit six times and still no breakthrough. That’s not a good sign. 06. So tonight’s strategy is simple — Don’t heavily bet on direction right after the CPI release. The market is currently in a "waiting for the next data" vacuum. The options market still prices high premiums for downside risk at the end of August. What does this mean? It means big money hasn’t placed bets yet. They’re waiting for PPI. Waiting for 8:30 PM tonight. CPI has reduced the risk of a rate hike, but only PPI can tell us whether inflation is truly gone or just taking a breather. Will you be watching the PPI data at 8:30 PM tonight? $BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温