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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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CPI让加息的风险降低了,但PPI才能告诉我们通胀是真的走了,还是只是歇了口气 CPI数据出来了——同比3.4%,核心CPI 2.5%,双双符合预期。 9月加息概率从48%掉到38%,维持不变的概率冲到62%。 好消息,对吧? 然后比特币冲了一下64,400,转头就砸到了63,500。 你没看错。利好出了,价格跌了。 为什么? 因为市场从来不为“符合预期”买单,市场只为“超出预期”狂欢。 3.4%的CPI,跟所有人猜的一模一样。没有惊喜,没有惊吓,什么都没有。 住房成本还是涨的,贡献了月度涨幅的三分之二。核心通胀2.5%,离美联储2%的目标还有半个点。 这组数据的真正含义是—— 加息的风险降低了,但降息的可能性?一点没增加。 Sygnum Bank的首席信息官说得很直白:“经济正在逐步降温,既没有衰退恐慌,也没有重新引发鹰派定价。” 翻译成人话:通胀没死,只是喘了口气。 而真正让我紧张的是下面这句话。 DWF Labs的管理合伙人Andrei Grachev昨晚说了一段话,我建议你读三遍: “符合预期的CPI数据……并没有解决太多问题。更有趣的细节是,比特币期权市场仍然对保护性期权收取高昂溢价。在8月底到期的期权中,接近60,000美元的下行行权价成本高于接近70,000美元的同等上行行权价。” 看懂了没? 市场愿意花更多的钱去买“比特币跌到6万”的保险,而不是买“比特币涨到7万”的彩票。 这不是看涨的信号,这是恐惧的定价。 Grachev还说了后半句—— “明天的PPI将是检验这一溢价是否开始缓解的下一个节点。” 今晚8:30,美国7月PPI公布。 前值PPI月率-0.3%、年率5.5%。市场预期月率转正到0.2%。 两种可能: PPI低于预期 → 生产端通胀全面降温,9月暂停加息概率继续上升,比特币可能突破64,400阻力位。 PPI高于预期 → 工厂还在涨价,成本还在往下游传,加息预期卷土重来,比特币面临63,000支撑位考验。 CPI是消费者已经付了多少钱。PPI是生产者还要涨多少钱。 前者告诉你过去,后者告诉你未来。 再说一个让人不安的信号。 分析师Rekt Capital在X上发了一张图:比特币从63,000美元区域反弹的力度,从6.27%→5.83%→3.18%→现在只剩1.15%。 反弹一次比一次弱。 Bitfinex的研究部门也说了:比特币在65,000-65,500区域已经被拒了六次。 六次。 同一个天花板,撞了六次都没过去。 这不是什么好兆头。 06. 所以今晚的策略很简单—— 别在CPI落地后重仓押注方向。 市场现在处在“等下一个数据”的真空期。期权市场还在为8月底的下行风险定价高溢价。 这意味着什么?意味着大资金还没下注。 他们在等PPI。等今晚8:30。 CPI让加息的风险降低了,但PPI才能告诉我们通胀是真的走了,还是只是歇了口气。 今晚8:30,你会盯着PPI数据吗? $BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地,9月加息预期降温
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Miners Switching to "Landlords": Behind the $9.1 Billion AI Deal, Bitcoin's Supply Logic Is Being Rewritten If a Bitcoin mining company no longer makes money by selling coins— Would you still value it as a "miner"? On August 10, Riot Platforms dropped a bombshell. AI giant Anthropic—the company behind Claude—signed a 20-year computing power lease with Riot. $9.1 billion guaranteed. If both renewal options are exercised—$16.1 billion. What Riot plans to do is simple: rent out the 191-megawatt power capacity of its Rockdale, Texas campus to Anthropic for AI operations. Once the news broke, Riot's after-hours stock price surged 25%, hitting $24.40. A Bitcoin mining company, making money from selling "power" instead of "coins," pushed its stock up 25%. But if you think this is just a straightforward positive story—you're being naive. Riot released its Q2 earnings report the same day. Revenue was $174.2 million, beating expectations. But net loss was $237.2 million, nearly double market expectations. Losing $237 million, yet stock rises 25%. What is the market betting on? That Riot is no longer a "mining company." Behind this is a structural migration underway. In the first half of 2026, Riot sold 9,665 Bitcoin, cashing out $732.5 million. Why sell? Because mining is no longer profitable. The depreciation-included mining cost for US-listed miners has soared to $112,000 per Bitcoin. And Bitcoin's current price? Around $64,000. Mining one coin means losing one coin. So miners are collectively seeking new paths. Core Scientific's AI data center revenue jumped from $8.6 million to $77.5 million, a 9x increase year-over-year. IREN, Hut 8, Cipher Mining—all are pivoting. This is not a choice, it's survival. And Riot's $9.1 billion deal takes "transformation" to a new level. Bernstein analysts did the math: AI hosting business accounts for 84% of Riot's target enterprise value, Bitcoin mining only 11%. 84% vs 11%. Is this still a "Bitcoin mining company"? H.C. Wainwright raised Riot's price target from $25 to $40. Morgan Stanley gave a $36 target with an "overweight" rating. Wall Street is redefining this company. So what does this mean for us Bitcoin holders? Three things, each hitting hard. First: Selling pressure from miners is easing. Miners used to be Bitcoin's "native sellers"—to pay electricity bills and buy new rigs, they had to sell large amounts of Bitcoin every month. Now it's different. Riot sold 9,665 Bitcoin in the first half of 2026 to invest in AI infrastructure. But that investment brings stable rental income of $9.1 billion over 20 years. Once the AI lease starts generating cash flow, miners won't need to rely on selling coins to operate. Less selling pressure → less BTC sell-off. Second: The valuation logic for mining companies has changed. Previously, the market valued miners based on computing power, number of rigs, and mining cost per coin. Going forward? It’s about power capacity, long-term contracts, and client creditworthiness. Capital markets have always discounted Bitcoin miners, with EBITDA multiples usually only 6 to 12 times. But AI data center companies? Over 10 times. The same assets—power, land, data centers—labeled differently, nearly doubling valuation. Third and most important— Bitcoin's "supply-side narrative" is being rewritten. For the past decade, "halving → supply reduction → price increase" has been Bitcoin's core narrative. But if miners no longer depend on selling coins to maintain cash flow—does the supply shock from halving still matter that much? No one can answer that now. Riot's deal won't be fully operational commercially until June 2028. $9.1 billion is total revenue over 20 years, averaging $450 million per year. Riot's current annual revenue is about $700 million. Long-term water won’t quench immediate thirst. Moreover, the market has started cooling. The day after the announcement, Riot's stock gave back some gains in regular trading. Wall Street's attitude toward miners' AI transformation has shifted from "frenzy" to "rational." Early AI announcements triggered average 24% stock volatility; now it's down to 10%. The storytelling phase is over; now it's about real money. So back to the opening question: Is Riot still a "Bitcoin mining company"? From revenue structure—no. From valuation logic—it’s changing. In the long run—maybe not anymore. Miners are turning from "coin sellers" into "landlords." What this means for Bitcoin might need a rethink. Do you think miners pivoting to AI is good or bad? $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单

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