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Those who once firmly said there would be a rate hike in September might end up being proven wrong…… #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 ┈➤ Nonfarm payroll data does not support a rate hike The layoff trend was mentioned at the end of last month. The initial July nonfarm payroll data was indeed negative. The July labor force participation rate was 61.4%, lower than expected and the previous value; some people probably gave up looking for work because they thought they couldn't find a job. Therefore, the negative nonfarm employment data combined with the decline in labor force participation both point to one conclusion — the U.S. job market may be starting to weaken. ┈➤ Wage data does not necessitate a rate hike Both the annual and monthly wage growth rates were below expectations and previous values. Wages are an important component of goods and services; slower wage growth helps slow down CPI growth. ┈➤ U.S. Treasury and geopolitical factors both favor no rate hike in September No need to say much about U.S. Treasuries; Brother Feng has analyzed this several times. Rate hikes can easily cause a vicious cycle for U.S. Treasuries. On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman are working on a Strait co-management agreement. If reached, the Strait might temporarily allow passage. ┈➤ Final notes Currently, CME interest rate futures show a 44.1% probability of a rate hike in September, and PM's probability for a September hike is only 36%. However, CME interest rate futures show the probability of a rate hike in October is over 50%. So whether there will be a hike in September, and whether it will be hawkish or dovish, remains very critical. Therefore, August, which has no FOMC meeting, might be a relatively good vacuum period unless U.S.-Iran relations become tense again