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When everyone is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the real opportunity might be hidden "after the agreement is implemented" On the morning of August 10, you open your eyes and glance at your phone. Brent crude oil rises to $84.5 per barrel. Bitcoin stands at $65,000. Gold rises to $4,350 per ounce. You breathe a sigh of relief—BTC hasn't dropped. But have you ever considered this question: If the Strait of Hormuz agreement is really signed, what will happen to BTC? If, like most people, the answer that comes to your mind is—"Agreement reached = oil price falls = inflation drops = Fed eases = BTC rises," then you might be making a fatal mistake. Let's first talk about what's happening now. At the beginning of August, everyone thought the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Trump said, "It could fully open as soon as tomorrow." Iran said it was "very close to reaching an agreement" with Oman. Oil prices immediately plunged more than 6%. BTC rebounded to $64,500. All seemed peaceful. Then, Iran suddenly changed its stance. On August 8, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued five conditions in one go before agreeing to reopen the strait: Permanent cessation of military actions against Iran, lifting all sanctions, returning frozen assets, compensating losses... Iran's Foreign Minister Alagheband said more bluntly: "Even if an agreement is reached with Oman, it does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will reopen." In plain language: an agreement is an agreement, reopening is reopening—two different things. On the same day, Houthi forces used drones to bomb Saudi Aramco's refinery. The agreement was not signed, oil prices rose back, and BTC hovered around $65,000. What is the market trading now? A very simple binary logic: Agreement reached = oil price falls = BTC rises Agreement not reached = oil price rises = BTC falls This logic has been fully priced in. On August 5, when expectations for the agreement heated up, oil prices plummeted and BTC rebounded. On August 10, when the agreement was not finalized, oil prices rose and BTC did not crash. The market has repeatedly played this "agreement reached/not reached" multiple times. But I want to ask you a contrarian question— What if the agreement really is reached? Most people's script is: agreement reached → oil price falls → inflation eases → Fed rate cut expectations rise → BTC rises. This script is not wrong, but it's too short-sighted. After the agreement is reached, what really deserves attention is not how many dollars the oil price falls, but three deeper matters: First, Iran's "de facto recognition." The core of this agreement is not "reopening the strait," but "the manner of reopening." According to the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman, the two existing shipping lanes in the strait will be closed and replaced by a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters. Iran will establish a "new passage mode different from the past 60 years" in the Strait of Hormuz. What does this mean? It means Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is being recognized in the form of an agreement for the first time. For the past 60 years, the Strait of Hormuz was "international waters." In the future, it will be a "strait under Iran's control." This is not a concession; it is a transfer of power. Second, the de-dollarization of transit fees. Iran announced as early as May that transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz would accept Bitcoin, USDT, and RMB for settlement. If the agreement is implemented, this "non-dollar settlement system" will be officially legalized. A strait that carries one-fifth of the world's oil trade, with transit fees not paid in dollars—what this means for the "petrodollar system" goes without saying. Third, broader geopolitical reconciliation. The Iranian parliament has already approved the overall framework of the "Strategic Action Plan to Ensure the Security and Development of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's goal has never been just "collecting tolls," but to use the strait as leverage to push for sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and regional ceasefire. If the agreement is ultimately implemented, even if only temporarily and partially, it means the US-Iran game is moving from "military confrontation" to "negotiation phase." And the start of the negotiation phase is far more important for global risk assets than one or two oil price fluctuations. The market always overreacts in the short term to geopolitical "noise" and underestimates the "signals" brought by geopolitical restructuring. Right now, everyone is focused on "whether the agreement is signed"—this is noise. After the agreement is signed, who controls the strait, what currency the transit fees are settled in, and whether sanctions are eased—these are the signals. Noise makes people anxious; signals make people money. So what should you do now? If you are trading the binary event of "agreement reached/not reached"— You are already late. This logic has been repeatedly priced in by the market countless times; any unexpected outcome is already reflected in the price. If you are thinking about the "world after the agreement is implemented"— Then you should focus on three things: How the control of the strait is described in the final agreement text Whether transit fees are officially allowed to be settled in cryptocurrencies Whether the sanctions relief clauses contain substantive content Any one of these three signals landing will have a more lasting impact on the crypto market than oil price fluctuations of a few dollars. One last thing— The real status of the Strait of Hormuz agreement is: Iran has put forward conditions that the US cannot fully accept, but neither side wants to return to full-scale war. So what is the most likely outcome? Not "agreement reached," nor "negotiations broken off." It is a conditional, partial, phased temporary arrangement. The agreement will be signed, but the strait will not fully open immediately. Oil prices will fall, but not back to pre-war levels. BTC will rise, but not because of easing risk sentiment—because the world's most critical energy channel has officially accepted Bitcoin as a settlement tool for the first time. This is the real long-term narrative. Don't be led by the short-term noise of "whether the agreement is signed." Focus on the rewriting of the power structure, not the rise and fall of oil prices. $BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？