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AMD Earnings Preview: Simpler Logic Compared to SpaceX Earnings After the US stock market closes, SpaceX will release its earnings, followed by AMD's Q2 earnings report. This is also a key earnings event for the AI sector this week. Let's focus on several key data points, with the core being to verify current revenue and look ahead to future performance and business capabilities. 1. Data Center Business Growth: This is the core support for the current valuation and stock price. Whether the data center continues to grow and where the growth points are will help verify if the cloud business can continue to expand under Intel's control, and whether GPU market share can be taken from Nvidia to balance the current valuation and stock price. 2. MI350: This is currently AMD's core GPU series. The focus is on shipment volume. The market needs to get answers from this data on how many customers actually bought it. If customers buy more, the valuation and stock price will be supported. 3. MI450: The future core flagship product. The key points are the mass production timing of MI450, customer pre-order quantities, customer commitment scale, whether it is expected to contribute to performance in Q4 2026, and revenue outlook for 2027. This is the core product supporting AMD's future 2027 performance and represents support for future stock price and valuation. 4. AI Revenue: Facing competition from Nvidia, whether AMD can narrow the gap between the two. Only with performance growth gradually closing the gap with Nvidia can the story of "Nvidia alternative" continue. 5. Gross Margin: Previously, AMD guided a Q2 gross margin of 56%, slightly higher than Q1's 55%. If product sales performance grows but gross margin does not improve, the market will suspect AMD is engaging in a price war, using low prices to boost sales volume. 6. Q3 Guidance: If Q3 revenue guidance is lower than the Q2 announced figure, the market will also adjust the stock price and valuation, leading to a stock price decline. Summary: Tonight, the factors determining the current stock price and valuation are the data center, MI350, and gross margin, while the absolute factors for future valuation and stock price are the MI450 product and Q3 guidance. Best-case combination: revenue exceeds expectations + data center exceeds expectations + MI350 sales volume increases + Q3 guidance is raised + gross margin ≥ 56% + MI450 progress is ahead of schedule with new orders. This set of data can strengthen the current AI commercialization logic, support AMD's stock price, and bring stronger confidence to the entire US stock AI sector, boosting this week's US stock market performance! Worst-case expectation: revenue and EPS exceed expectations + data center is average + Q3 guidance is average + MI350 growth is below expectations + MI450 has no new orders. This combination, even with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, may still lead to a stock price decline! #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴