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The first point is that once the Clarity Act is really scheduled for a vote and passed before August 10, it means the regulatory framework is upgraded for the first time from a temporary administrative guideline to congressional legislation. This distinction is crucial: administrative guidelines can be overturned with a change of administration, but legislation requires Congress to vote again to amend it. Institutional funds want this kind of certainty that won’t be overturned by the next government with a single sentence. If it really passes, the institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, which have already publicly taken sides, will most likely convert their wait-and-see positions into actual allocations. That is the incremental capital that can truly push $BTC out of the 62,000 to 63,500 range, rather than the current internal shuffling of existing funds. The second point is that if the August 10 window is missed, according to the Senate schedule, the next opportunity will be mid-September. Moreover, if it drags close to the midterm elections, the bill itself will be caught up in bigger political struggles, and the certainty of passage will only decrease, not increase. In this case, institutional funds have no reason to recklessly increase positions before the rules become clear, and range-bound volatility will become the default state rather than an exception. So my own logical chain on this matter is that the Clarity Act passing does not necessarily mean a surge, nor does failure necessarily mean a crash. Rather, this bill determines whether $BTC’s volatility in the coming months will be suppressed by institutional certainty. If it passes, it’s likely the range will narrow before choosing a direction; if it doesn’t, the range itself will likely continue to grind for a long time. This is also why I say the current regulatory progress and Bitcoin’s technical pattern are not a coincidence but two facets of the same logic. $BTC #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 #美日确认联合购汇