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This NUPL indicator tells me: the true capitulation bottom has not yet appeared! Looking at cycle bottoms: in the late bear markets of 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, NUPL fell below the zero line. When NUPL is negative, it means that based on the average on-chain cost, the entire BTC network is overall in unrealized loss. This phase is usually accompanied by: concentrated selling by high-position buyers; reshuffling of long- and short-term holdings; market sentiment entering fear or capitulation; The zero line is not just an ordinary line; when NUPL falls from positive to negative, it represents the market moving from "profit giving back" to "principal loss." Currently, NUPL has fallen from the previous high to the 0–0.25 range. This indicates that most of the paper profits have been compressed, the market has clearly left the greed zone, but the overall network is still in floating profit, and the comprehensive capitulation common in historical bear bottoms has not appeared. In other words: it doesn’t look like a cycle top now, but it’s also not a textbook ultimate bear bottom; it’s more like a transition zone between "hope and fear." Next, we can observe two possible paths: If BTC strengthens again, NUPL will rise synchronously and re-enter above 0.5, indicating a new round of profit expansion; but the closer it gets to historical highs, the profit-taking risk will also accumulate again. If BTC continues to fall and NUPL breaks below zero, it means the entire network enters overall unrealized loss, and the panic release that occurs then may actually bring a higher-quality cycle bottom signal. Personally, I think the truly important thing is not whether NUPL will break below zero, but: if the price hits a new low again, will NUPL also hit a new low synchronously? If the price is lower but NUPL no longer worsens, it means the expansion of losses is slowing, and selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. So here’s the question now: If BTC stops falling while NUPL is still positive, would you choose to start positioning early on the left side; or would you wait until NUPL breaks below zero and the entire network completes capitulation before taking action?