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Brothers, listen to me. On June 12, SpaceX went public at $135, surged to $225 intraday, with a market cap surpassing $3 trillion. Retail investors scrambled to buy, institutions chased the highs, and everyone thought—"This is the next Tesla." And then? At the close on July 31, it was $108.37. Down 20% from the IPO price, and halved 52% from the peak. Elon Musk’s personal wealth evaporated by over $600 billion in just a month and a half. Market cap dropped from $3 trillion to below $1.5 trillion—over a trillion dollars lost. But that’s just the appetizer. The real main course is coming next week. On August 4, SpaceX will release its first earnings report since going public. On August 6, 911.5 million shares will be unlocked. At the current stock price, that’s over $100 billion worth of shares flooding the market two days later. And how many public float shares does SpaceX currently have? About 640 million shares. Overnight, tradable shares will more than double from 640 million to over 1.5 billion shares. And that’s not all. By December 8, the float will soar to 5.33 billion shares—more than seven times the current amount. Short sellers have already gone crazy. S3 Partners data shows that as of July 29, short positions on SpaceX reached 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float, with a notional value of $24.6 billion. When data was first published on June 16, short positions were only 23.3 million shares. In just over a month, it surged nearly tenfold. Musk himself posted on X, "Companies shorting SpaceX long-term have a very low survival probability." But shorts don’t buy it—they’re betting that the $100 billion supply shock next week will crush the stock price. But I’m not here to talk about SpaceX. I want to talk about your Bitcoin position. $100 billion worth of shares are about to hit the market—who will take them? The answer: institutions must rebalance their portfolios in advance. How? By selling other overvalued assets, hoarding cash, and preparing to absorb SpaceX’s "bloodied chips." Which assets will be sold first? Overvalued tech stocks. And—BTC and ETH spot ETF positions. This is not a conspiracy theory. During SpaceX’s IPO in June, Bitcoin fell from above $100,000 to $92,400, with the market already shouting "IPO is draining crypto liquidity." Now, the same script is playing out, multiplied by 10. Back then, the IPO raised $75 billion. Now it’s $100 billion unlocking, plus tens of billions more shares unlocking before year-end. This is not a one-time liquidity event—it’s a "seller black hole" lasting until December. Two key dates: August 4 (Tuesday) after market close: earnings release. The market will watch if Starlink can turn a profit and if AI spending is tapering off. Wall Street expectations: Q2 revenue $6.75 billion, loss per share $0.35. Full-year 2025 net loss $4.9 billion, Q1 2026 single quarter loss $4.28 billion. If earnings miss expectations—institutions will rush to sell other assets to cover SpaceX. If earnings beat expectations—institutions will sell other assets to grab SpaceX shares. Either way, risk markets will "bleed passively." August 6 (Thursday): actual selling pressure hits. $100 billion worth of shares unlocked, selling pressure crashes down, and the strength of buyers will decide everything. Before that—the market is in a liquidity vacuum. So what to do? First, don’t heavily bet long this week. It’s not about being bearish on Bitcoin; it’s that when liquidity is drained, no asset can withstand passive selling. Second, wait until after August 6. Wait for this "Starship" selling pressure to land, see how strong the buyers are, then decide on replenishing crypto positions. Third, avoid SPCX-related leveraged crypto contracts. There are still hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged crypto contracts linked to SpaceX. Volatility will be extremely intense around the unlock—high probability of both long and short liquidations. Here’s a harsh truth: You think you’re trading crypto yourself. Actually, you’re providing liquidity for Wall Street’s SpaceX share absorption. They’re selling your coins, hoarding cash, to catch those SpaceX shares that have dropped 52%. You stay up late watching candlesticks; they’re calculating how to absorb $100 billion. $BTC $SPCX $XSPCX #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即