Post

Tonight, Trump's attitude expressed in the cabinet meeting was actually relatively softened, clearly stating his goal—to win (even if just a visible win), clarifying his stance (keeping negotiation possibilities open), specifying the conditions for facilitating talks (nuclear issue), and indicating that an agreement could be reached. Overall, the attitude seems relatively moderate to me, without planning for a strategic conflict between the US and Iran. The ball is now in Iran's court, and it depends on how Iran responds. This is also a test of the political tacit understanding between both sides. If Iran backs down gracefully, giving Trump a reason to claim victory, and makes appropriate compromises on the nuclear and strait issues, the bilateral situation can return to a negotiation framework, and the US-Iran situation will turn optimistic. However, there is a key issue here: Iran has clearly been "all in" recently. It’s not very appropriate for a gambler to talk about rationality and stepping down. Will Iran follow Trump's lead down the steps? I still have some doubts. At present, the ball is kicked to Iran, but regarding the strategic situation, Trump remains pessimistic. With the midterm elections coming in September, if the Iran issue cannot be resolved, Trump will definitely be troubled. This weekend, let's watch Iran's attitude. If Iran backs down gracefully, everything will improve. If Iran ignores Trump's attitude and continues to act stubbornly, the situation will still escalate! Looking at crude oil price trends, it seems the market does not believe Iran will soften, making it another tormenting weekend!#美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20%