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What is most worth looking at together today is that South Korean memory stocks and U.S. pre-market sentiment are clearly following two different logical lines. The KOSPI fell nearly 5% again today, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plummeted nearly 9%, and the Korea Exchange even triggered the circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ. Regulators are already discussing reducing the leverage multiples of leveraged ETFs from 2x to 1.5x or even 1x. This is a typical deleveraging stampede, not a fundamental problem. Samsung just announced quarterly operating profits close to $59 billion, and SK Hynix’s full-year profit this year is expected to exceed the total of the past 27 years. The performance numbers are absurdly good, but the stock prices still fell, indicating that the market’s current concern is not demand but that the AI memory trade in recent months has risen too fast and too much, with chips and leverage piled too high. Any slight disturbance triggers a stampede-style liquidation. This is the same logic as Nvidia and memory stocks evaporating over one trillion dollars in market value together last week. Capital is repricing overheated AI capital expenditure expectations. On the U.S. side, pre-market shows a different picture: S&P futures rose about 0.6%, Nasdaq futures rose between 0.3% and 1%, and Dow futures rose nearly 1%. The direct reason is that Trump announced over the weekend a pause on military strikes against Iran and instead pushed for negotiations. Oil prices dropped more than 6% in response, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell. The easing of geopolitical risks gave the market a reason to breathe. Later today, Palantir will report earnings, and this week AMD, McDonald's, Disney, and the newly listed SpaceX are all lined up to announce results. My own judgment is that this combination of Korean stock sell-off and U.S. stock rally will not coexist for long. The optimism in the U.S. pre-market is mostly an emotional recovery brought by the single variable of geopolitical easing and does not mean that the pricing anxiety over AI capital expenditure has been resolved. The selling pressure on Korean memory stocks is, after all, another expression of the same set of concerns. What will truly determine whether the memory and semiconductor sectors can stabilize next is the statements on the pace of AI infrastructure spending in the earnings reports of several heavyweight companies this week. The rebound driven by geopolitical news cannot sustain this bigger pricing issue. $SKHY $SNDK $MU #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？