tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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Isn't this a very typical characteristic of the final wave of decline?
Long-term BTC refers to BTC held on-chain for more than 155 days.
In the previous 3 cycles, before the final wave of decline, there was always a relatively obvious new high in long-term BTC, followed by a slight decrease in long-term BTC. See the blue arrows in the chart:
November 2014, November 2018, and October 2022 all followed this pattern.
It is speculated that when long-term BTC accumulation reaches a sufficient amount, the main force (or the whales) need to trigger the final wave of panic to strive for the last round of accumulation.
Of course, this does not mean that BTC at $62,000 is definitely the bottom, but the final wave of decline is very likely the current one.
Judging from the extent of the decrease in long-term BTC (the scale of the main force's sell-off), quite a bit of BTC has been sold off this time, clearly more than in 2014 and 2022, but possibly slightly less than in 2018.
For more analysis, check Twitter; Orbit on OKX can't publish very long articles.
It's already 2026, and I didn't expect that we still need to recharge faith in Bitcoin, BTC has fundamentals!
First, BTC has high mining costs, it is supported by costs. Although cost cannot determine price, it is one dimension of fundamentals.
Second, BTC is one of the US strategic reserves, one of El Salvador's legal tenders, BTC has certain political attributes and international status.
Third, BTC is the underlying asset of ETF products issued by top global asset management companies like BlackRock and Fidelity. BTC has a place in traditional finance.
Fourth, Brother Feng is the first and only one to propose this view—
BTC is a crowdfunding economic model. Indeed, BTC cannot have cash dividends like stocks because the code is open source. If it were not open source, the BTC code could potentially be sold.
BTC has MEME attributes, all coins and even stocks do. Let's recall together, when any asset surges explosively, isn't it always like a MEME that excites everyone, with various memes spreading?
But having MEME attributes does not mean it is a MEME. BTC has fundamentals!
"99% of Altcoins and Shitcoins are garbage," I agree with that. But Bitcoin is neither an Altcoin nor a Shitcoin!
BTC is declining with reduced volume, but we can't blindly follow the previous two dips!
For sellers, the third dip is very likely to mark the end of the bear market and the start of a bull market, so sellers will also cherish the BTC they hold.
If it were 2014 or 2018, there would have been many who followed the trend and panicked to sell BTC. Now it's 2026; will there still be many who follow and panic sell BTC?
For buyers, the 4-year cycle and the history of the second dip are well noted, and more funds may have already entered the market during this year's second dip. Are there still many with money waiting to buy the dip?
Therefore, at the third dip bottom, the trading volume might not be as large as the previous two times. (I'm not saying this is the bottom now, that's not my point. I mean that at the bottom, the volume won't be very large.)
tvbee
Brother Feng might be proven wrong; BTC near 70,000 might not be the bottom.
BTC's daily candle has closed, and USDT's off-exchange price has risen. There might be a rebound, but BTC doesn't seem to have hit the bottom.
First, the two dips in February and June-July this year were not just single wicks.
Second, RSI14 just broke below 30, currently at 26.27, not yet below 25, which is still higher than the first and second dips this year.
Third, why can't it go straight to the bottom like the February dip?
Because in February this year, the total market cap of USDT+USDC was about one week ahead of BTC's bottom; later, when BTC fell further, funds flowed in. So when BTC dropped later, there was capital to catch it.
But in the June-July dip this year, the total market cap of USDT+USDC fell roughly in sync with BTC.
Currently, it looks more like June-July this year.
Of course, if it’s like June-July, there will be a rebound.
Fourth, Trump just rejected the Iran deal; there’s no good news regarding the US-Iran situation and oil prices.
Fifth, the PCE at the end of the month, the December non-farm payroll data, CPI, and especially the dot plot from the interest rate meeting might provide reasons for new lows.
The key is the dot plot; a rate hike in December is no longer in doubt. The December dot plot will show whether next year’s rate hikes are expected to be more hawkish or dovish.
Brother Feng’s latest observation is that the bottom will be near the June-July lows. (Buying in batches, already started buying, picked up some ETH, DBR, SUI)
Hopefully, this time the pessimistic prediction is wrong, and this is the bottom now
Should the Democratic Party investigate Wall Street or the media?
Whether it's non-farm payrolls, CPI data, or stock earnings reports, there are basically only two possibilities: things get worse or get worse.
But then an expected data point comes out in the middle, causing what could have been a one-way market movement to encounter twists and turns.
Macroeconomic data forecasts have the power to interfere with the overall market, while earnings forecasts can influence individual stock prices.
grok's response to Brother Feng is that the expected data comes from investigations of dozens of Wall Street economists... but could their forecasts be suspected of market manipulation? Is there a possibility of利益输送 (interest transfer) between capital and economics here? Of course, I am raising a question, not a rhetorical one, and certainly not a rhetorical question.
The profit models of economists and KOLs might be similar. The difference is that economists' forecasts and statements have much greater influence than KOLs on Twitter.
Brother Feng might be proven wrong; BTC near 70,000 might not be the bottom.
BTC's daily candle has closed, and USDT's off-exchange price has risen. There might be a rebound, but BTC doesn't seem to have hit the bottom.
First, the two dips in February and June-July this year were not just single wicks.
Second, RSI14 just broke below 30, currently at 26.27, not yet below 25, which is still higher than the first and second dips this year.
Third, why can't it go straight to the bottom like the February dip?
Because in February this year, the total market cap of USDT+USDC was about one week ahead of BTC's bottom; later, when BTC fell further, funds flowed in. So when BTC dropped later, there was capital to catch it.
But in the June-July dip this year, the total market cap of USDT+USDC fell roughly in sync with BTC.
Currently, it looks more like June-July this year.
Of course, if it’s like June-July, there will be a rebound.
Fourth, Trump just rejected the Iran deal; there’s no good news regarding the US-Iran situation and oil prices.
Fifth, the PCE at the end of the month, the December non-farm payroll data, CPI, and especially the dot plot from the interest rate meeting might provide reasons for new lows.
The key is the dot plot; a rate hike in December is no longer in doubt. The December dot plot will show whether next year’s rate hikes are expected to be more hawkish or dovish.
Brother Feng’s latest observation is that the bottom will be near the June-July lows. (Buying in batches, already started buying, picked up some ETH, DBR, SUI)
Hopefully, this time the pessimistic prediction is wrong, and this is the bottom now
tvbee
Want to change my avatar, no more bees, let's switch to a crow, lately I've been a jinx.
Said there would be three dips,
Said the bull hasn't arrived,
Said the midterm elections would be a rebound, not a reversal,,
Said the October CPI data would exceed expectations,,
Said it would drop to around 70,000, which is the 2021 high.
Begging it not to fall anymore, if it falls again it'll be a slap in the face, I wasn't afraid of those before, just afraid if it keeps falling this time it won't just be a slap in the face, it'll hurt the wallet too.😭
Willing to offer 60 jin of meat to see BTC bottom out! 😂
Want to change my avatar, no more bees, let's switch to a crow, lately I've been a jinx.
Said there would be three dips,
Said the bull hasn't arrived,
Said the midterm elections would be a rebound, not a reversal,,
Said the October CPI data would exceed expectations,,
Said it would drop to around 70,000, which is the 2021 high.
Begging it not to fall anymore, if it falls again it'll be a slap in the face, I wasn't afraid of those before, just afraid if it keeps falling this time it won't just be a slap in the face, it'll hurt the wallet too.😭
Willing to offer 60 jin of meat to see BTC bottom out! 😂
Want to change my avatar, no more bees, let's switch to a crow, lately I've been a jinx.
Said there would be three dips,
Said the bull hasn't arrived,
Said the midterm elections would be a rebound, not a reversal,,
Said the October CPI data would exceed expectations,,
Said it would drop to around 70,000, which is the 2021 high.
Begging it not to fall anymore, if it falls again it'll be a slap in the face, I wasn't afraid of those before, just afraid if it keeps falling this time it won't just be a slap in the face, it'll hurt the wallet too.😭
Willing to offer 60 jin of meat to see BTC bottom out! 😂
Following OKX, Backpack, Trust Wallet, and Bitget Wallet, Kucoin Wallet has also integrated deBridge.
Phantom users have cumulatively transacted $535.5 million through deBridge (data as of October 21, 2026).
Trust Wallet users have cumulatively transacted $115 million through deBridge (data as of July 17, 2026).
Bitget Wallet users have cumulatively transacted $100 million through deBridge (data as of April 29, 2026).
deBridge's cross-chain bridge on its official website is a toC product, easily understandable by retail users.
As for toB products, deBridge integration into wallets is already widely recognized. However, deBridge can also be integrated into more products, including but not limited to:
First, integration into DEXs, with real-world cases including Jupiter, OKX DEX, etc.
Second, integration into AI Agents or other automation tools, with real-world cases including deBridge MCP, HeyAnon AI Defi Assistant, Sigma trading bot, Maestro trading bot, etc.
Third, integration into defi applications to achieve cross-chain defi. Real-world cases include Astrolab cross-chain yield aggregator, etc.
