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#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI

Q: What is SpaceX99%ValueFromAI?

SpaceX99%ValueFromAI is Musk told SpaceX staff that AI revenue should surpass all other businesses in September. He targets 10 GW of compute by end-2027, which he estimates could generate $300B-$500B annually. His "train on Earth, infer in space" plan would combine Starship capacity, Starlink and AI compute into one infrastructure stack. Musk expects AI to drive 99% of SpaceX's value in five years. These remain management forecasts. Can AI revenue support its valuation, and are capex and execution risks fully priced?. Follow this topic on OKX Orbit for the latest community posts and token insights.

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About SpaceX99%ValueFromAI

Musk told SpaceX staff that AI revenue should surpass all other businesses in September. He targets 10 GW of compute by end-2027, which he estimates could generate $300B-$500B annually. His "train on Earth, infer in space" plan would combine Starship capacity, Starlink and AI compute into one infrastructure stack. Musk expects AI to drive 99% of SpaceX's value in five years. These remain management forecasts. Can AI revenue support its valuation, and are capex and execution risks fully priced?

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[Pharaoh's Market Watch] Pharaoh's spicy comment: I'm floored by Elon Musk's latest move! 🚀🧠 Brothers, my DMs exploded like fireworks, all asking, "Pharaoh, Pharaoh, Elon Musk said AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value in five years. Is this guy quitting rockets to sell crutches, or is he just painting us a big Mars pie?" Pharaoh sums it up in one sentence: Rockets keep flying as usual, but the way to make money has completely changed! Elon Musk, the old fox, is officially a rocket maker, but behind the scenes, he's already scheming to empty your wallet with computing power. Let me throw some data at you to show what "dimensionality reduction strike" means— SpaceX's AI revenue in Q2 hit $2.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter surge of 213%, and a year-over-year jump of 247%! Elon Musk did the math and confidently set the timeline: "Don't ask, just know that next month (September), AI revenue will surpass the combined total of rockets and Starlink; by Q4? It'll be 'far beyond'—too embarrassing to compare." Think that's all? The computing power expansion plan is even more aggressive. Elon says he has already built the "world's most powerful AI training cluster," and by the end of next year, the computing power scale will increase tenfold, reaching 10 gigawatts. He counted on his fingers and calculated: at $30 to $50 per watt, this is a business generating $300 billion to $500 billion annually! At this point, some might ask, "So no more Starlink? No more rocket launches?" That's a narrow view! Elon’s logic is terrifyingly clear: Starship is infrastructure; AI is the soul. SpaceX has accumulated 25 years of rocket R&D, manufacturing, and operational data, all fed into Grok, aiming to let AI "inherit the employees' thoughts, ideas, and beliefs"—in plain English: copying a room full of veteran engineers' brains into countless cyber workers who don't need salaries or sleep. Even more incredible is the "Starmind" satellite plan, starting next year to launch "computing satellites" into space, so future AI reasoning runs directly in orbit. Wow, this is about moving data centers to the sky! So, how does Pharaoh see it? SpaceX is no longer just a "freight company helping you launch satellites for some hard-earned cash." It has transformed into a "super money printer selling computing power as hard currency." Rockets, Starlink, Dragon spacecraft? All are tickets ensuring the safety of this "computing power empire." AI accounting for 99% of value in five years? It's not that rockets stop flying; rockets become the backdrop, and computing power is the new trump card! Remember Pharaoh's words: good deals come to those who wait, but if your understanding lags, all you get is to slap your thigh in regret. SpaceX's narrative has completely flipped; if your valuation logic still revolves around "how much money launching a satellite makes," then you’re truly losing at the starting line. Did you get this wave? $BTC $ETH $SNDK #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%

Snapshot at Aug 13, 2026, 10:44

$XSPCX SpaceX (SPCX) recent market performance shows characteristics of "earnings exceeding expectations but stock price volatility." As of August 13, 2026, the stock price has been fluctuating around $135 (IPO issue price), just rebounding from a sharp drop after the earnings report, but momentum has weakened. 📊 Core Market Data · Recent trend: After the earnings report on August 5, the stock plunged 13%, then rebounded to $138.74 due to the unlocking of restricted shares, but recently fell back to around $134.54. · Valuation changes: Market capitalization exceeded $3 trillion on the first day of listing, currently down to about $1.74 trillion (around $135/share), halving from the historical peak. 💰 Earnings Highlights and Concerns Impressive operating data · Revenue: $7.814 billion (YoY +92%), far exceeding the expected $6.93 billion. · Profitability: Net loss significantly narrowed to $541 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion (YoY +192%). Two major concerns triggering the plunge · AI cash burn is intense: Q2 capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion (AI accounted for $15.8 billion), more than six times that of the same period last year, raising market worries about continued negative cash flow. · Restricted shares unlocking: The first batch of about 911 million shares unlocked on August 6, creating huge supply pressure. 🔍 Bull-Bear Battle Focus Currently, market divergence is very clear: · 📉 Bearish logic (cash burn and valuation): The profitability model of the xAI business is still unclear, and large-scale debt issuance (planning to issue $20 billion bonds) and future cash flow pressure worry institutions. Morningstar even gave a fair value estimate of $62. · 📈 Bullish logic (leading moat): Starlink’s quarterly profit is $1.66 billion (profit margin 38.7%), proving a closed commercial loop. Deutsche Bank believes the current market cap "over-penalizes" the AI business. Morgan Stanley still maintains a $300 target price. ⚡ Key Price Reference · Current support: $132 - $135 (IPO issue price and recent low area). · Upper resistance: $140 - $150 (short-term pressure faced during rebound). · Upcoming key event: The second round of restricted shares unlocking will occur on August 20, posing potential selling pressure. Overall, SpaceX is in a fierce battle between "strong fundamentals" and "high valuation digestion," with extreme volatility. Future trends depend on when the AI business can deliver on profitability expectations and how the unlocking pressure is absorbed.

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Last night, the US July CPI data was released, showing a slight easing of inflation. The market relaxed somewhat but is not fully stable, so blindly going long is not advisable. Various inflation indicators have slightly declined; core inflation and housing costs have not continued to rise. The market has accordingly lowered the September rate hike expectations, with the probability of a rate hike dropping to around 40%. US Treasury yields have slightly decreased, providing mild valuation support for high-valuation growth stocks. However, the sustainability of this inflation cooling is questionable, mainly driven by short-term declines in energy prices, so the overall foundation is not solid. Currently, crude oil remains at high levels, with energy and gasoline prices having risen significantly this year. As long as oil prices stay high, manufacturing and logistics costs will not significantly fall, making inflation likely to fluctuate again. Tonight at 20:30, the PPI data will verify the current cost-side pressures. ▶️ SpaceX is strongly rallying; I’m almost breaking even The most independent and strongest performer in the US stock market overnight was $SPCX. It closed up 9.65%, with an intraday high gain of over 12%, firmly above $146, reaching a new high since July 10, and its total market cap surpassed $1.92 trillion. It has rebounded over 42% from its IPO low and is up more than 10% from the IPO price, showing a very prominent phase profit effect. Yeah, if it rises just a bit more, I’ll finally break even 🥲 Another key point: the lock-up period ends on August 20. Usually, funds would exit early to avoid risk, but this time, funds are actively grouping to push the price up, clearly showing market recognition of its fundamentals rather than short-term sentiment speculation. The core catalyst for this rally is the real operating data disclosed in Musk’s internal meeting—no vague expectations, just solid performance support. Starlink currently has 22 million mobile users and 12 million fixed broadband users, far exceeding institutional expectations and completely dispelling market concerns about user growth peaking. At the same time, its long-term logic is very clear: AI network traffic will explode over the next five years, and traditional terrestrial infrastructure cannot handle it. Starlink’s global satellite network can support ultra-large global traffic transmission, making it a scarce essential infrastructure with industry barriers that are hard to replicate. ▶️ Potential risk warnings Short-term market recovery does not mean no risks; blindly increasing positions is not advisable. At the macro level, high and volatile oil prices, upcoming PPI data, US Treasury yield fluctuations, and geopolitical changes all bring market uncertainties. At the stock level, although SpaceX’s trend is strong, future user growth and industry competition remain uncertain. Combined with the company’s continuous high investment in aerospace R&D and AI deployment, there are long-term cost pressures, making it unsuitable for short-term chasing of highs. ▶️ More support for $SPCX 🚀 Inflation easing only provides a short-term valuation repair opportunity for growth sectors. The stocks that can truly withstand market volatility and develop independent trends rely on irreplaceable industry barriers, stable cash flow, and solid performance delivery. SpaceX is currently the most typical example.

Last night saw overall volatility with slight adjustments; the macro tension has been tightened again. Oil prices remain stuck at high levels, long-term interest rates haven't eased, and with the US CPI due tonight, capital is choosing to reduce exposure before the data release. TSMC's revenue and Micron's HBM4 mass production are still supporting AI hardware demand. Today's outlook: short-term focus on CPI and interest rates, long-term keep watching companies with orders and cash flow. This round of AI investment has passed the stage where just telling stories can drive prices up 🎯 ▶️ Last night's market - S&P fell 0.3%, closing at 7728 points - Dow Jones fell 0.3%, closing at 53791 points - Nasdaq fell 0.6%, closing at 26445 points - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped from 4.72% to 4.69%, but still much higher than the 3.97% level before the conflict escalation S&P constituent earnings this quarter are still growing about 50% year-over-year, so the real issue isn't earnings collapse but whether strong earnings can withstand high valuations, especially with interest rates pushing discount rates higher. It's not advisable to bet on a single direction before CPI is released. ▶️ Tonight's CPI Market expects a year-over-year of about 3.4%, slightly down from 3.5% in June. - If core inflation is also moderate: long-term rates may ease, and high-duration tech stocks can breathe - If data exceeds expectations: easing expectations will be pushed further back, with AI software and high-valuation growth stocks hit first Don't overlook the oil price line either; Brent crude briefly broke $90 last night, closing at $88.91, up 1.4%. It doesn't directly affect GPU orders but will raise discount rates, indirectly pressuring valuation multiples. ▶️ Hardware and semiconductors remain solid TSMC's July revenue was 467.58 billion TWD, up 44.7% year-over-year, with a 37% increase in the first seven months. Micron's HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform is in mass production, with bandwidth over 2.8TB/s and power efficiency improved by over 20%. Agent concurrency is rising; HBM, DRAM, and high-performance SSDs are shifting from supporting components to compute bottlenecks. Nvidia is no longer a solo act; the August 26 earnings report will look not only at revenue and gross margin but also Rubin supply rhythm, network interconnects, and whether inference demand can catch up with training demand. TSMC acts more like a shovel seller, supported by a triple moat of advanced process, packaging, and customer ecosystem. Short-term risks are valuation and geopolitical premiums. Post-HBM4 mass production, competition revolves around performance, yield, power consumption, and delivery capability: - SK Hynix and Micron are the most direct beneficiaries - Samsung still needs certification and yield proof to show it hasn't fallen behind - Regular DRAM and NAND are more affected by server, PC, and mobile inventory; don't assume all storage prices will rise just because high-end is tight System-level bottlenecks are also worth mentioning; beyond GPUs, CoWoS packaging, switch chips, optical modules, power, and liquid cooling all impact effective compute power. The next round of excess returns may not come solely from GPUs. ▶️ Tesla tracking logic No new information in the past 24 hours that changes the valuation framework for Robotaxi, FSD, or Optimus. Officially, FSD is still supervised, with drivers needing to be ready to take over at any time. Tesla should be weighted by milestones: - Robotaxi depends on regulatory approval and per-vehicle economics - FSD depends on paid penetration and retention - Optimus depends on operating hours and external customer orders Holding observation or core positions is fine, but adding positions is best tied to actual progress. ▶️ Summary In the short term, wait for the 8:30 PM CPI release tonight before considering adding directional positions. The August 13 PPI can be used to verify if signals align with CPI. Nvidia's August 26 earnings report is the next major event, worth heavy positioning for. Positioning priority should be AI hardware and platform leaders with high earnings visibility, followed by storage, interconnect, and cooling stocks benefiting from system bottlenecks. High-valuation AI software and pure thematic stocks should be considered last. Long term, TSMC and Nvidia lead, followed by SK Hynix and Micron. Platform companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta should keep pace, and Tesla should be allocated in batches tied to milestones. One final thought today: AI's long-term prosperity remains unchanged, but short-term prices these days are dictated by inflation and interest rates. Positioning in companies with orders, cash flow, and moats is much more reliable than chasing every model release event.