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Three reports submitted, one pending review — the last lottery ticket of the crypto earnings season Brothers, there are four earnings releases this week. After market close on August 3: Palantir After market close on August 4: AMD & SpaceX Before market open on August 5: Circle Three crypto reports have been submitted: Coinbase, Robinhood, Tether. Three reports, three completely different stories. Some failed the test, some transformed, some quietly made a fortune. The last one — Circle — will release results Thursday morning. Don’t rush to bet yet. After reviewing these three reports, you’ll know how to bet on the last one. First report: Coinbase — failed the test, but the failure was "expected" Revenue $1.22 billion, down 18.5% year-over-year, $80 million below the market expectation of $1.3 billion. GAAP loss per share $1.36, far worse than the expected $0.42 loss. Net loss $359 million. This is the third consecutive quarter of revenue missing expectations. Shares fell about 5% after hours. Interestingly, the drop widened to 13.9% after the official open. Why? Because the market was waiting for one thing: Q3 guidance. Coinbase didn’t say Q3 would rebound. Didn’t say crypto trading volume would recover. Didn’t say subscription revenue would hold steady. When a company delivers a poor report and offers no "next time will be better" promise — the market can only vote with its feet. But Coinbase isn’t without highlights. Cash and cash equivalents $8.6 billion, including $2.96 billion in stablecoins, $3.09 billion in money market funds and short-term U.S. Treasuries. It can withstand the storm. The problem is: withstanding doesn’t mean it can rally. Second report: Robinhood — successful transformation, but crypto cooled off Total revenue $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, a record high. Net profit $573 million, up 48% year-over-year, earnings per share $0.62, well above the expected $0.41. Pretty good? Yes. But breaking it down: Prediction market revenue $156 million — surpassing crypto and stock trading revenue for the first time. Crypto revenue plunged 38% year-over-year, down to $100 million. Crypto nominal trading volume $40 billion, with $18 billion on the Robinhood app, down 35% year-over-year. Robinhood used prediction markets and stock trading to fill the crypto gap. What does this mean? It means retail investors are still trading, but not in crypto. They moved to prediction markets and stock options. Good for Robinhood. Dangerous signal for crypto — retail enthusiasm is withdrawing from the crypto space. Third report: Tether — the only one smiling in the bear market Net operating profit $1.5 billion, nearly 50% higher than Q1. USDT circulation $184.6 billion, market share over 60%. Excess reserves $4.11 billion. User base exceeded 650 million. Earning $1.5 billion in one quarter is more than many public companies make in a year. What’s the essence of Tether’s business? Earning interest. With high U.S. Treasury yields, Tether uses USDT reserves to buy Treasuries; the interest spread is profit. As long as the Fed doesn’t cut rates, Tether can keep printing and profiting. The irony: the worse the crypto market, the more Tether earns. Because in a bear market, people prefer holding stablecoins. After reviewing the three reports, one conclusion is clear: Coinbase is enduring, Robinhood is transforming, Tether is profiting. The last one — Circle — reports before market open on August 5. What does the market focus on? USDC circulation, reserve income, institutional partnership progress, stablecoin competition landscape. Most optimistic scenario: USDC circulation grows quarter-over-quarter, interest income beats expectations → boosts DeFi liquidity expectations. Most pessimistic scenario: USDC continues to shrink, compliance costs rise → triggers market concerns about intensified competition in the stablecoin sector. At the end of Q1, USDC circulation was about $77 billion, up 28% year-over-year. Can Q2 maintain this momentum? Tether’s $184.6 billion USDT already tells you — in the stablecoin market, the winner takes all. Earnings schedule (Beijing Time): Monday (August 3) after market close → Palantir (PLTR). Market expects revenue about $1.8 billion, up 80% year-over-year, EPS about $0.28-0.35. AI data sector, P/S ratio 61x — high valuation allows no disappointments. Tuesday (August 4) after market close → AMD & SpaceX. AMD expected revenue about $11.3 billion, up about 48% year-over-year, EPS about $1.61. AI chip sector, up over 120% this year. SpaceX’s first earnings report since going public, expected revenue about $6.93 billion, EBIT loss about $1.55 billion. But the real bombshell is the 911.5 million shares unlocking on August 6 — more than the current float. Morgan Stanley calls this the "most dangerous moment." Wednesday (August 5) before market open → Circle (CRCL). The first full quarterly earnings report of the leading stablecoin company. Trading advice (plain talk): Small positions can be played one hour before each earnings release. But avoid heavy bets on a single event. After release, focus on guidance, not numbers. Last round with Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple — all beat revenue expectations, but stock prices moved in four directions. The difference? Next quarter’s guidance. Coinbase fell because it gave no guidance. Robinhood rose because prediction markets offered a new story. Tether profited because its business model doesn’t need storytelling. Circle’s earnings numbers aren’t important. What matters is: is USDC circulation growing or shrinking? Earnings season isn’t gambling season, it’s a season for harvesting expectation gaps. You don’t need to guess the data, you need to guess the market’s reaction to the data. Circle reports Thursday morning. $BTC $CRCL $AMD #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴