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EricSJ
EricSJ
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#财报观察员:亚马逊指引不及预期,股价却反涨9% 亚马逊 $AMZN 本季度净利润中包含有约534亿美元税前非经营性收益 和主营相关的营业利润为275亿美元,同比增长43% 这一部分利润主要由AWS推动,二季度营收达约422亿美元,同比增长37%,是过去18个季度最快的增速 图2的增长曲线呈一个“倒U”形,最新的数据刚好超2022一季度0.2个百分点🤣 AWS约占亚马逊总收入的21%,却贡献了约60%的营业利润 这一部分的数据,我认为和前几天我写的微软财报观点的逻辑是一样的:两者都已经进入了AI加持下的验收阶段 二者都没有停止开支的投入,这个最快增速也恰好发生在亚马逊资本开支最重、自由现金流压力最明显的时候 所以这次AWS增长的意义,不只是云业务恢复增长,而是它初步验证了亚马逊资本开支的方向 此前AI板块的概念股,或是和AI沾边的几乎都处于“投入先行”的阶段,区别只是在有的是开辟新业务,有的是在原有业务上做叠加 但无论是哪种,都有个核心矛盾:需求兑现速度 有个数据:AWS合同积压金额由上一季度约3640亿美元增加至4960亿美元,单季度增长约1320亿美元 虽然说合同积压不能直接等同于未来收入,但它至少能说明AWS当前面对的市场需求是很清晰的,剩下的事情就是看是否能不断的做产能兑现 所以我才拿它和前几天我发的微软财报里的观点做对比:没有明确需求的资本开支,就是在下注,但已经开始出现兑现加速的趋势,那就是另外一个阶段的故事 另外,从图2应该能看出来,此前两个季度的增长趋势其实也是蛮强的,但为什么这次反应格外大呢 我觉得一是有市场情绪的因素,导致近期市场已经从关注AI投入规模,转向关注投入能否真正兑现 二是同一个数字,在不同经营背景下,含义完全不同 此前两个季度AWS的增速虽然也很强,但市场看到的更多还是“云业务复苏” 而这一次,37%的增速是和几个数据同时出现的: ➠ 自由现金流由正转负 ➠ 资本开支继续上调 ➠ 合同积压单季度增加1320亿美元 ➠ AWS营业利润率进一步升至39.4% 这几个数据放在一起,市场理解的就不只是“云业务增长得不错”,而是:亚马逊在资本开支最重的时候,收入端开始加速,利润端也没有明显被新增投入拖垮 前两个季度是趋势确认,Q2更像阈值突破 再看盘面(图3): 财报后的跳空已经计入了一部分叙事修复 我一直不太主张在财报发布前后去建仓,因为这个阶段交易的不只有基本面,还混杂了预期差与情绪在里面 从日K图看,亚马逊的价格已经来到前期高位区域附近,同时RSI显示短线已经进入明显超买状态 所以可以先给一个简单结论:270美元附近不是一个在财报跳空后可以立即追入的位置 基本面值得看好,与价格适合马上追进去,是两件完全不同的事情
EricSJ
EricSJ
Free cash flow turns negative, why did Amazon's cloud business achieve the fastest growth in 18 quarters?
After opening the trend following Amazon's earnings release, the stock price first surged sharply from about $235 before the earnings report in after-hours trading, then further rose during the next day's regular trading session, finally closing near $271.58. Although there were fluctuations afterward, the price never showed a significant pullback and ultimately remained at a high level. #财报观察员:亚马逊指引不及预期,股价却反涨9% Actually, when looking at the latest earnings reports of Amazon and Microsoft together, I believe the signals they convey are similar: both are increasing AI investments while informing the market of the phased results of these investments. To further understand this, we first need to "break down" Amazon's most impressive profit figures. Because the most eye-catching net profit this quarter does not represent the core business, which many market earnings views might have already told you. This earnings perspective tells you more than just the operating profit after stripping away... 1. After net profit distortion, what does operating profit indicate? Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $200.6 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase; operating profit grew from $19.2 billion in the same period last year to $27.5 billion, an increase of about 43%. One of the most exaggerated figures this time is indeed net profit: Amazon's net profit this quarter reached $62.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 244%. Looking only at the income statement, Amazon seems to have suddenly entered a profit explosion phase. However, this quarter's net profit includes about $53.4 billion in pre-tax non-operating income, mainly from changes in the value of Amazon's investment in Anthropic. This part of the income

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