On July 31, Trump said two sentences during a cabinet meeting:
"I am losing trust in Iran more and more."
"We will hit them hard."
On the same day, US media reported: The US and Israel are preparing to launch "the most intense bombing so far" on Iranian energy facilities, targeting power plants and refineries. The operation may last the entire weekend.
Before the strike, the market already kneeled.
The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply from 22 on July 30 to 5 the previous day, a 77% decrease. Iran directly announced that "the strait can no longer operate normally."
You need to understand what this means—one-fifth of the world's oil trade passes through this waterway.
What is Bitcoin doing?
On July 31, BTC fell below $63,000, down 2.9% intraday. Coinbase stock plunged 10%.
Interestingly, on the same day, South Korea's Kospi index surged 17%, and chip stocks soared epically.
Bitcoin neither followed the stock market up nor rose as a safe haven—it’s stuck in the middle, following neither side.
Why?
Because the logic of oil prices is crushing everything.
Let's break down the transmission chain:
First link: Oil prices rose.
In July, Brent crude soared from $71 to over $87, a cumulative increase of over 20%. WTI fluctuated violently between $80 and $86. Chevron’s Q2 net profit surged nearly 400% year-on-year.
Second link: Inflation is coming back.
For every 10% rise in oil prices, the US CPI directly increases by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. The World Bank warns: geopolitical tensions causing a 1% supply reduction push oil prices up 11.5%.
Third link: No rate cuts.
At the July FOMC meeting, 9 to 3 voted to keep rates unchanged—3 Fed officials dissented, advocating a rate hike. The market has started pricing in the possibility of a rate hike in September.
Cathay United Bank directly stated: if oil prices stay above $80 for the next two months, pressure to raise rates in September will greatly increase.
Are you still waiting for a "rate cut bull market"?
The Fed itself doesn’t know when it can cut rates.
But it’s not that simple. This is what I most want to say—
If the conflict escalates and oil prices hit $100, the Fed faces a deadlock:
Rate hike → economic recession → stagflation
No rate hike → inflation out of control → still stagflation
The US stock market didn’t rise for a decade in the 1970s because of stagflation.
And stagflation is the only macro environment where Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative can hold.
Bitcoin was born after the 2008 financial crisis and surged after the 2020 massive liquidity injection—Bitcoin never rises in "good times," it rises when the "old system has problems."
So what you’re seeing now is a divided market:
Short term: oil prices → inflation → rate hike expectations → liquidity tightening → BTC under pressure (BTC at 63,000 is proof)
Medium term: if stagflation really comes → fiat credit collapse → BTC’s "digital gold" narrative reawakens
Short-term bearish, medium-term potentially very bullish.
When the shells are aimed at refineries, don’t rush to bottom-fish altcoins.
Focus first on the oil price candlesticks.
The top of oil prices is the bottom of BTC liquidity.
$BTC$XAU$CL#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
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